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[虚拟币交流]
做多黄金和比特币！传奇投资人：无论谁当选总统 美国通胀都会上升（转）
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财联社10月23日讯（编辑 卞纯）美国传奇投资人、亿万富翁对冲基金经理保罗•都铎•琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）表示，他正持有黄金、比特币和大宗商品，以对冲通胀风险，因为两位总统候选人都没有合适的计划来解决美国债务问题。5 i6 @, t# I8 A- G. z! X U
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. P. a7 i' D$ R8 B2 F: O琼斯40多年前创立了自己的对冲基金都铎投资（Tudor Investment Corporation），并因正确预测1987年股市崩盘而闻名。2 B' q* |. K( A6 p! _$ ?$ H' e( Y+ {
) b4 C$ w9 o( ]8 B% w( e琼斯表示，11月大选后，通胀风险将凸显，因为两位候选人都提出了减税和支出计划，对美国的赤字问题视而不见。7 m% O3 E6 k% J( X! }8 k
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“所有的道路都会导致通胀，”琼斯周二在接受媒体采访时表示。“我做多黄金。我做多比特币。我认为大宗商品的持有量不足，所以我做多大宗商品。我认为大多数年轻人通过纳斯达克找到对冲通胀的方法；这也很棒。”9 t4 U1 m8 A' L% h" ]& p. l: n
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琼斯表示，基于特朗普可能获胜的想法，他已经将投资组合调整为更多的通胀交易。
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5 M) I7 l9 g/ p! u' T' G" A: c I& E经济学家预测，鉴于特朗普计划大幅提高关税并延长2017年企业减税计划，其执政下美国通胀将走高。# b8 l! c) D4 ^' Z
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琼斯认为两位候选人都值得担心，因为他们似乎都没有足够重视国家不断膨胀的债务。他表示，就美国预算而言，特朗普和哈里斯都“最不适合他们面前的工作”。! E4 { ^% `$ @) u4 V& b A: S' e
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他还表示，ZF有多种方法可以更好地协调支出，但这可能需要做出重大改变，例如允许特朗普第一任期内的减税政策到期或大幅裁减联邦工作人员。% h" Q+ U' B/ z+ b
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琼斯之前曾发出过“债务炸弹”警告，他对美国的财政轨迹非常悲观。国会预算办公室（CBO）预计，到2034年，债务占GDP之比将达到122%。琼斯认为，这是一个非常保守的估计。3 K0 H( d3 u0 o6 [/ M8 m5 f5 U, J
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债券市场或遭遇抛售
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$ a) O5 w% S0 K' Y琼斯预测，一旦选举结束，下一任总统将不得不解决不断膨胀的债务问题，否则债券市场可能会出现抛售。届时“债券义勇军”可能卷土重来。由于“债券义勇军”拒绝美国国债，导致10年期国债收益率在去年10月触及5%。/ k7 E" w2 B1 X( W3 O5 k
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“债券义勇军”指的是债券市场投资者，他们担心货币或财政政策会导致通胀，于是抛售债券，从而推高收益率。
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“在特朗普的领导下，赤字每年增加5000亿美元；根据哈里斯的计划，赤字每年增加6000亿美元。我有一种感觉，所有这些都不切实际。” 琼斯表示，“美国国债市场不会容忍这种情况。”% t8 Q6 K8 C0 q! R& T4 S$ d8 B
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