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[虚拟币交流]
比特币终于突破8万美元:比特币的下一个ATH是什么?(转)
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截至发稿时,约4.27%的比特币供应支持现货交易所交易基金。
. v$ @8 k% P7 P9 z: M$ p+ V. D分析师预测,2024年11月至2025年2月将出现市场峰值。3 ]0 F3 y: P6 Y9 }9 E
比特币[BTC]继续向加密货币市场展示为什么它是王者硬币。经过近一个月的盘整和横盘整理,该市场领导者在突破8万美元后创下新高。
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. J9 J# h) T+ a) H- e$ E: N7 fAMBCrypto注意到,加密货币在24小时内上涨了5%以上,在过去七天内上涨了18%以上CoinMarketCap数据。1 ~. c3 U3 `. C, o/ R+ @
% h$ n0 f6 s! S0 b6 E1 C' e看涨的增长环境
' F+ h8 j y6 l% O% Y比特币的运动是在普遍市场看涨,尤其是在美国证券交易委员会于1月批准比特币现货交易所交易基金(ETF)之后。
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根据AMBCrypto对SoSo Value数据的分析,自上市以来,价值近260亿美元的BTC已进入这些基金。' C1 N- N9 q8 x; @- t8 r8 L- \6 {
5 D% U& V" F9 q- M$ l: b& _' W此外,在经历了最初的资金外流后,流入量急剧飙升灰度比特币信托(GBTC).
: Q9 G" J8 J# A' A
- O8 R8 u% H3 j8 a2 H: k此外,截至本文撰写之时,比特币现货ETF的管理资产或AUM接近790亿美元,占比特币总供应量的5.21%。
: z6 Z8 @, U' A W9 X: w' A/ ~* h2 t6 I! i0 z# k% B9 d8 i' [
除了加密货币之外,还有其他原因可以解释比特币的表现 ;
9 [$ \8 i i# A. }) @5 R/ |5 H; d3 z
通货膨胀在过去几个月里显著降温。就业市场也增长得更好。9 j% g) b! [$ w! j7 y. @( \
( P5 l8 U6 M8 W+ b3 C这导致了t美联储(Fed)将采取相对温和的做法,保留利率稳定的在上个月的联邦公开市场委员会会议上。
8 S d: Z: R# i3 w. M( v5 k% v/ X. A9 P4 P" d3 r x; S
投资者和政策制定者普遍认为,下次会议利率也将保持不变,如果通胀得到控制,今年晚些时候有可能降息。7 P5 ^7 u2 O, v
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这使得人们开始在股票和加密货币等资产的风险上花钱。! j1 w: |/ k4 V4 Q- U
* N# G9 x: V' r比特币会变得越来越稀缺和昂贵吗?
4 t( n+ B: H) W6 q6 T越来越多的比特币被锁定在现货ETF中,这在更广泛的市场上造成了稀缺。' t& m3 P* [; S. |' k, Q4 z
. K! d! B- I/ U g0 k' ?因此,根据AMBCrypto对Santiment数据的审查,交易所的供应继续下降。" Y' _% ~5 ~7 P3 B5 s. z
) w4 G* w M' N0 d# W, V8 O$ F此外,在撰写本文时,比特币总流通供应量的约9%由交易所持有,低于2024年初的近12%。, R9 ~; d3 o+ n& V& Y- ~& d- o" V
) K5 k, {7 ~/ W* U0 O+ M; |此外,在供应萎缩的同时,需求方面也没有放松。相反 ;与之前的牛市周期相比,2024年比特币的反弹是由零售和机构利益共同推动的。' d/ x+ H7 ?" E
2 c% i/ v6 d, f! x( }. O
使用Glassnode,AMBCrypto发现持有1K硬币的鲸鱼实体显著增加,而自2024年开始,非零余额的地址也有所增加。+ l3 a+ Z& a" `0 R1 C, H
6 ^1 O% z; _+ U/ n- ?火箭飞向月球?. p4 N, K$ _* G. Q& e' ~
这种供应枯竭和需求飙升的看涨情景有可能将比特币推至本周期的历史高点。! p w" T) q1 X1 C
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" o: H# n8 R$ q& s7 x9 |* I著名技术分析师阿里·马丁内斯早些时候曾预测,市场峰值将在2024年11月至2025年2月之间的某个时候达到。" _5 H& I% x# u Z6 B
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因此,当我们从地面发射时,8万美元看起来只是一个开始。火箭似乎有足够的燃料供月球使用!
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