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贝莱德 2026 展望报告：数字资产是支付与结算的基础设施，看好 AI 相关美股表现
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比推消息，贝莱德（BlackRock）近日发表 2026 年全球展望报告。报告强调 AI 基础建设投资规模巨大，导致微观即宏观（micro is macro），并带来杠杆上升与多元化幻觉等挑战。整体维持亲风险（pro-risk）立场，超配美股（尤其是 AI 相关），看好主动投资机会。
报告核心三大投资主题：
Micro is macro：AI 建设由少数公司主导，资本支出规模宏大到足以影响整体宏观。投资可能达 5-8 万亿美元（2025-2030），支撑 2026 美国经济增长（投资贡献是历史平均 3 倍），即使劳动力市场降温仍具韧性。但不确定营收是否足以匹配支出，以及多少回流到科技巨头。报告认为 AI 可能加速创新，但历史上 150 年重大技术变革均未打破美国长期 2% 增长趋势；不过增长爆发（growth breakout）情景现在可想象。
Leveraging up：AI 建设者前期巨额投资而营收滞后，导致系统杠杆上升；加上政府债务高企，形成脆弱性。青睐私人信贷与基础设施融资。战术性低配长期政府债券（如美债），因高杠杆与资本成本上升对长债不利。
Diversification mirage：大趋势主导下，传统多元化配置可能实际是集中押注。投资者需主动持有风险，保持投资组合灵活性（有 Plan B），寻求私人市场与对冲基金的独特回报来源。
报告特别指出，贝莱德将数字资产（尤其是稳定币）视为支付与结算的基础设施（plumbing of the financial system），而非单纯投机资产。稳定币被视为数字美元轨道，正从加密原生工具演变为连接传统金融与数字流动性的桥梁，扩展到跨境支付、结算等领域，尤其在传统系统缓慢/昂贵/碎片化地区。报告暗示加密正融入主流金融，稳定币成熟为基础设施，支持全球流动性流动，并与传统金融重叠。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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