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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 . S2 E7 Z+ Z6 B! |. q5 H8 V: o

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只跟踪一个联赛" e, O' @: ]' `3 {6 B1 B, _1 v
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2 S* s! n6 K0 f( L全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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6 I, p* _8 B* H9 s7 z偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。9 @8 D3 o, I) ~

& B5 n1 y! T" r4 O4 R方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）( I7 H& j" ~! \& Z

, h( J% i, z) X  I( M然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，5 Q; U$ X% h6 n' o9 K
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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& v; K! a. _! b3 Q; S5 x! P1 M- t* K) {当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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4 l, j! _+ A7 E" }) ?* ^亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，( k# `/ @5 H2 x" \; F! P

, m) o! g0 h* ~8 k而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。5 ]9 R2 _" r" n' ?0 j
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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2 n" m/ J; `0 |* Q! R排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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, L6 T5 t: |9 Y$ u但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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  L& j6 K3 W( R4 V8 n' ^) j这比买国债存银行合算。% w6 R, K/ S! L+ A3 O6 E5 @
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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* b, y) o& r4 @常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。! t% R& d# J8 @5 F0 V- W1 i- z
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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# X$ b! a/ H" Z6 I: t; Z9 v  F回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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