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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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& a; ?5 [' p3 X' u. L) A  C8 H只跟踪一个联赛- D5 n! }% ^  i4 T: z
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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4 A2 D5 e4 q0 ]1 M, [偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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- h& F: r5 v/ @( z+ U0 J方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱& f+ a+ l/ I1 a( W
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目( r8 i6 M% G) G& K# r

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* E+ A5 v( W1 g4 {3 @/ [- i# G3 L: {7 h$ j) O2 w  W9 [
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，% v$ ~" u! q; v

4 _, Y4 R3 G2 m! C) l3 u- c& O' {但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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( h; M& \1 Q  I理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。0 @. R* M  ~! |0 a) H6 B4 c' R
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，- a" A8 }, ], [( H1 j" m
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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  A4 T  U* ^5 e3 F- p这比买国债存银行合算。4 U+ T9 _# I. w6 E: [* e

3 {' m8 w" \' n8 T" j3 K- O在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，/ f) J5 @2 p2 |7 n% c7 Y
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。* F) y8 ^! n0 I0 e7 [

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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" e; ^  t6 h4 R( O, m8 G$ ~放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，7 c. ^) N: U9 X: p& d

3 g2 x2 m7 q9 v6 I! B2 z就是回避了大的亏损，
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0 P6 z& v& L* g' A- t  u3 R, R$ H大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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/ A% w; `2 k' C/ [# O+ q- L回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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3#
学习一下，天天进步

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4#
顶起再慢慢看

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