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[lastpost] => 2649420 比特币闪电钱包ZEUS哪儿也不去（转） 1715589785 ouliangzhong
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为何USDT兑换人民币会出现溢价？
1 D! ^5 l" w/ y1 w! u' M" y4 s, P( J, ?; p, q
% i9 h3 k" H) U4 V. G5 p 在人民币用户领域，USDT并不存在兑换法币的场内市场，而只有场外交易，由于场外交易的高度分散化，对于Tether公司来说，显然无法找到有效的做市手段将汇率维持在1:1。任何价格的偏离，都是因为供需平衡发生了变化，而USDT的价值偏离美元兑换人民币的官方汇率，则有两种可能。 & d( P1 x; f0 Z7 b
其一是场外交易的供需平衡被打破，供不应求，卖家满足不了巨大的市场需求，因而USDT产生了溢价； 其二是场内加密货币的供求平衡被打破，人们正在将加密货币换成稳定币，从而使USDT产生了溢价。 0 C2 q% Q/ I4 t: f% N$ Y+ d) T3 R
无论发生以上哪种情况，都需要Tether公司增大USDT的供应，以保证汇率稳定。目前，市场处于极度恐慌情绪，许多人急着将加密货币换成稳定币避险，因而造成了usdt兑换人民币的巨幅溢价，最高达到7.8。 # u' n! N! ^, \- g/ g( ]
为何无法通过搬砖搬平 1 @. X( ~) `" k7 N6 u* H
如果USDT场外兑换人民币的汇率相比官方汇率溢价3%，在外汇领域，属于巨大的套利空间，用户可以用美元从Tether直接购买USDT，在人民币场外市场卖出，将获得的人民币换成美元，如此反复操作。但事实上并没有人这么做，从而导致溢价一直存在，主要有两个原因。
, t* A$ F; ^8 f9 b第一，外汇管制的原因。目前我国居民每人每年度只有5万美元的换汇额度，且向外汇款有诸多限制，导致基本上无法直接向Tether购买USDT； ) ]) S/ @" v. s1 z( Q- A
第二，即使解决了换汇的问题，当用户将搬砖的USDT卖出，换取大量的人民币时，有一定概率收到来路不明的资金，导致银行账号被冻或是更麻烦的事，得不偿失。
" ` x) l ~/ C% R 目前USDT的溢价刚好伴随了BTC价格从60000美金的下跌，因而此次溢价的产生，可能更多地来自于场内玩家将加密货币换成稳定币，而不是场外人民币玩家的跑步进场。比如神鱼DeFi视频中某大户DeFi挖fei超过10亿美金的充值，预计不仅是自有稳定币，还从外部借了许多USDT。 1 d4 f9 I4 h- |4 w
不过也有一些OTC商表示，目前场外新人进入较多，尤其是Filecoin非常火爆出圈；以及传统OTC商遭到ZF严查打击。这也可能是造成U溢价的原因之一。 |
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