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[虚拟币资讯]
6月1日正式开始 一文读懂美联储”缩表”概念和对币圈有何影响
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根据美联储5月会议公布的计划，”缩表”将于6月1日正式开始，这次“缩表”的节奏是上一轮的两倍，其影响不可忽视。 2 ^) f! Z9 A$ y9 ~& D
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“缩表”是什么？
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8 [6 ]1 p5 c; Z1 R3 `“缩表”指的是美联储资产负债表绝对规模减少。进入“缩表”阶段，美联储资产负债表规模将开始下降，在资产端对应的是国债和MBS的持有量下降，在负债端对应的是储备金和逆回购的减少。
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9 F l0 C- |6 S- S0 Q- N& Z2 Q/ }缩表即资产负债表缩小，收缩资产负债表，简称缩表。缩表的时候不需要注明是负债缩小还是资产缩小，资产负债表是同增同减的。只需要注明是扩表还是缩表即可。
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) P' I5 ?, d" Z6 O! T: K0 G0 D举个例子，银行开张，客户来存钱，存现金一万，银行给客户开具一张一万额度的支票，凭支票即兑一万现金。此时，银行保险库里多了一万现金，这就是银行的资产，而开具出的支票就是银行对客户的负债。资产负债表是同时增加的。
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/ H0 ], h, E+ m m3 C如果有人要说怎么缩减的问题，最简单的办法就是，卖！能变现尽量变现。把企业的各类资产尽量卖掉、全部变现，你资产负债表上的项目也就变少了。卖到最后，企业账面上就只剩下现金了。其他各类资产的统计基本归零了，那么就是缩减了资产负债表。所以，缩表缩表，缩的就是资产负债表。缩表的过程，其实就是变卖各类资产的过程，或者减少各类资产购买的过程。 / x& ?+ b3 z2 g1 r/ v
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美联储缩表的本质：减少各类资产的购入，从而稳定美联储现金流的过程，或者把它各类资产卖掉、从变现增加其现金流的过程。
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$ v6 s) s0 n% S8 m0 C7 H. l缩表对币圈有何影响 7 g6 p, R- g3 z9 a7 e& @5 J/ Z
) q, }* Q3 S U6 _5 G上轮缩表给金融市场带来的短期波动有限。美股延续整体震荡向上的趋势；美债收益率维持高位，期间受到国际贸易摩擦等事件的影响，走势出现波折；美元指数跟随美债收益率高位震荡，但并无大涨行情出现。
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8 E% d4 a; g& J: ~- y" A然而，当前的经济金融环境与上次缩表大有不同。首先，通胀的上行风险更大。上轮QT期间，美国通胀增速在2％的目标水平附近徘徊，美联储抗击通胀的压力相对较小。美国2月通胀增速已高达7.9％，且俄乌冲突导致通胀前景加剧恶化。鲍威尔也承认，通胀上升幅度比预期更大且更持久。 9 {, U/ ]2 Q& b
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此外，美债的利率环境与上次出现了明显差异。在通胀率持续飙升以及紧缩预期不断强化的提振下，不同期限美债收益率出现了不同程度的上行，美债收益率曲线平淡化趋势强化，多个部分出现倒挂。市场对经济衰退的担忧此起彼伏，在次情况下，美国本轮紧缩周期估计会较上一轮明显缩短。
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e% n/ [; r0 R+ o6 Z缩表或将推动美债长端利率进一步上行，使得国际资本回流美国。 % l+ \$ q) h$ L) Q0 J% N6 R
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写在最后 * p4 W/ b" o0 H, B+ Y4 I
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将于6月1日开始以每月475亿美元的步伐缩表，并在三个月内逐步提高缩表上限至每月950亿美元。市场上大量美元将流出股市、加密货币、NFT和元宇宙。
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钱就像水一样，装在不同的池子里面，股池，房池，七七八八的池子，现在又多了一个币池。加息的情况就是希望水都流进政府的池子里。那其它池子里面的水就变少了，自己市场里水池的水变少了，投资总额就少了。那股市怎么走，币市怎么走，心中有答案了吧！ 7 x( H( s9 W8 u
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来源：金色财经 |
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