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[虚拟币交流]
Ripple加入ISDA会员！XRP目标价1896美元？（转载）
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支付网络公司Ripple近期加入了ISDA会员，有人乐观预估其币价会上看1,898美元。! G" s5 G5 ` _/ m$ @" c
ISDA有何重要性？真的对XRP币价有如此深远的影响吗？
2 @2 X, ^. x# ?/ S什么是ISDA？
/ o: k- `( v4 ^国际交换兼衍生性商品协会(International Swaps and Derivatives Association，ISDA)为总部位于美国纽约的非5 A( ]/ ~+ b6 O0 C% G
营利性组织，成立于1985年。银行或金融交易对手若要承作衍生性金融商品，都会预先签订所谓的ISDA主契约
9 \7 ]! b8 P' h# ~7 B7 K& T" r(master agreement)，这个由ISDA设计，目前广为世界各金融中心所沿用的法律契约，其主要功能在于规范交易6 `* s# r' [, ?' z# x! j, ]4 C
双方的法律风险及信用风险，并且通过中立的角色，设计出公平的法律条款，使双方的交易成本降低，有助于市
6 J6 I8 V1 k/ h) j场的正常发展。
. }- W! C. ^! j6 B* ^3 S2 t换句话说，要跟全球的金融机构交易衍生性商品，就必需加入ISDA。1 l5 E' j6 E7 t( `8 D- j. b6 M
进入ISDA的数字资产会员名单，目前仅有16名会员，其中大家比较熟悉的还包括Crypto.com、Algorand和
, z6 C/ Q- i, CDigital Asset。! L7 d8 [( T! E5 q& y
加入ISDA，XRP目标价1,896美元？% ^5 @/ w S- c8 {3 t1 ~$ a
Digital Perspectives PermaBull的推文引发了一系列讨论。他强调了Ripple与ISDA的合作对XRP价格的潜在影) U c* `4 t. o8 p8 S- L
响，其中引用了Mr.Man的推算法，若Ripple能获得主流的采用，将使其币价来到1,896美元。4 a, F# r9 I1 p
根据其推论：
1 l& u8 r2 i {& i# ~: K0 P7 p现今全球衍生性商品总市值为1,000兆美元
2 O& I; u* p# J* z8 d( q若Ripple能协助处理其中10%的交易量，也就是100兆美元
. q' ^5 p; Y; D0 ]XRP目前总市值为349亿美元( k$ L, p5 B) h1 B" e
需成长2,865倍才能达到100兆美元
' S. J, W8 ~# `1 [# y' g而XRP目前币价为0.661742
& q0 b# e& A' I/ ]% `0.661742*2865=1,896.23美元
5 H5 n. j/ O B3 {# [3 |挟带ISO和ISDA的优势引导传统金融的采用？% w6 `1 b2 C5 G* C3 C8 T5 E- q* L. v
不过观察XRP近期的走势，仅有在七月中因与SEC的诉讼案传出好消息而一度大涨99%，之后币价逐渐回落后似乎% H' \2 i" B. n
也未有极大的波动。 l3 y& P: X+ Y x, Z
而上述的论点仅基于简单的假设和推论，比方说10%的交易量，是来自传统金融产业想利用区块链技术进行衍生
9 b! D4 b: Y# L1 S: y0 J性金融商品交易？交易量和市值的关系应该也不是如此直观而直接。但随着Ripple和SEC的诉讼案逐渐明朗，这# R. H- b6 G% g2 c9 s- p/ Z
个早期加入区块链的支付公司，是否有机会利用其XRP Ledger的底层技术，挟带ISO20022和ISDA的优势，慢慢
/ p! U j& ]7 a+ }引导传统金融的采用呢？8 m6 g8 F; M' h+ ]; b
" b1 `5 _8 O' d) f
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