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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易
3 t {+ P7 q" b委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自6 Q8 X: ]% I% {7 B1 F
BlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。3 S- s: k1 ?8 R+ m$ s! y m: b! K: ^
通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
7 l9 m {* d" T9 H a* w! ]! M! B批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始
; L( y, P* }* u& ?6 B3 [. g后240天做出裁决。' ^" i0 _1 e/ w% `' E
分析师：预料之内会被推迟) q; X& [$ {% v' O. H; }
彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也) R: L0 ^9 g+ u; d; Q# E7 P8 U
变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方& ^& G8 v" R% q' L
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行" b3 m( |. |/ H
长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力
1 V9 l( R4 g) C. l来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊
5 Y: I* H( E: x `5 W% o) c5 D讶。1 z' z, b _: G& u& I
事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争
4 q: U/ Y- l3 B$ g( s环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成2 G; X3 \/ i" p4 `7 |
功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。/ ~5 ?6 X ?% G" |6 _
三大利好消息酝酿
7 G q6 b. P0 ~6 p; }3 N5 Q# Q市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：1 C& M6 A* s7 U; C# S2 r4 k
GBTC负溢价率缩窄) v. x' E, X# @2 G5 ]2 P
最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持! K- W3 x' P% F6 K+ b
续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可; U0 [; [* `5 @$ Z* W% Q, p# z
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。
# d- M' ~6 M1 D/ n! D杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线
$ S. g5 q3 x* _% f值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只2 G0 z K# [' E" E
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。 O Z6 [7 o% k* p* l; c' A3 j/ G0 d* O
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请& G6 f: K: S: t% g/ ^
不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后
$ u' w! v Y- i+ Z多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然
* c0 c t* u9 I b% ?9 R' S知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。
" n/ |: g8 z, m3 c7 ~& ^ A5 g+ u3 ^( @9 N; b5 C. `
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