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[lastpost] => 2797285 比特币：探究比特币价格近期飙升至 9.5 万美元背后的原因（转） 1768634838 jackcool1011
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人4 y1 X2 a1 B2 D7 L2 y( r$ q
! o M6 F* m! y6 L# M* G认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
+ w" M& x/ ?" s* g; M8 O& ]
* {+ y4 _9 B$ Y- J: J# K而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
% Z) b, c2 M0 I( E
/ M. [1 M+ u5 c% C- T) O! M. V# S的千禧一代。8 z5 y' n. o2 e% {5 T1 ^
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB( i$ `- A+ X# U3 H5 u
- W3 p9 @( n- E, \ v* `的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“6 M0 n$ ]% f0 n& @$ q1 r j# u) q
. M8 p% O# M7 u; \+ q L" _( c
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加$ `$ X4 [* w$ [( ~
% d3 A/ \, M. b- ?" G% w) P' e6 \
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
4 ~+ l. [; H2 `% Y& H" f5 w3 }( U* R& M& n
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
2 Z7 ?8 F6 R2 F& y
6 t/ h8 q! e# G' ~5 K0 [的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》( q% C. \& R' w2 x$ e
$ U( O$ \+ Z% l) a! | I
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
l9 e: `) b9 T; b" n7 w1 U1 u5 O; y: B7 X, O, S2 K
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为+ N }& P8 @' r9 D" B0 r
" n* x1 Z5 j9 Y5 w$ UETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。, E9 L' H |3 n% } [. H
$ B+ K, X+ V( q
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降4 [1 m( c6 ]) ^
u ^2 o$ \0 K: J3 D! O0 F" n; P" e }
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
2 K% o1 N7 F3 x) b) }
4 C+ ]$ x$ @2 M0 e. F5 L% I% j与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
% V3 J* f1 ]9 w( o2 m+ p, Z6 ~, C# w, d2 [4 {; B. N
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
" {7 p* X! p1 t6 c- B& T
" X6 u6 Q/ E* d! I; F传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
2 z+ ], F, @' S) F3 Y1 I) `
+ Y: d" }& P- O$ c到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
, ^8 m1 m) S) _9 @ W, j3 s0 i
/ \ n. Y" F9 h! O% `5 s/ `& S代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成0 b& q9 _3 W, m6 _
$ r0 c6 y9 N/ D7 Y
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体6 c6 L7 [% {+ _6 ~8 W
* I$ ^. G6 Q* Q4 _8 x v系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货- e% V3 i4 s" m7 F x% U& o( f
5 }1 L9 j5 E9 a# C' E+ j
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致# S8 @7 U2 k" ?+ p
* L+ _$ T! |# N5 \
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
, o7 x5 m3 J. N( E" ?. I' h1 i/ b" l1 }0 |
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。/ b& k$ s1 J' {" f* K# Y( ]
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