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进入减半周，叠加战争因素影响，整个加密市场表现疲软至极。截止撰稿时，比特币价格跌破 63,000 美元，24 小时跌幅为 3.5%。此外，美国比特币现货 ETF 昨日净流出 3700 万美元。与此同时，山寨币的表现在新的一周并没有好转，加密货币总市值为 2.43 万亿美元，24 小时跌幅为 2.11%。
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据 Alternative 数据显示，今日加密货币恐慌与贪婪指数为 62（昨日为 74），创近一个月来新低，炒作情绪持续降温。另据 Etherscan 数据，今早以太坊网络 Gas 费已降至 8 gwei。种种数据表明，当前的加密市场进入了冷静期，在这样的背景下，多个分析机构也给出了自己的操作。
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: @9 p4 J+ J) ]9 r加密分析机构 10X Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 曾在 4 月 8 日表示「比特币可能会在未来几周内攀升至 80,000 美元以上，甚至更高。以 69,280 美元买入并将止损设置在 65,000 美元似乎是合适的。」
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但今日其在社交平台表示，以股票和加密货币为代表的风险资产正处于大幅价格调整的边缘。主要诱因是意外且持续的通货膨胀，债券市场目前预计降息次数将少于三次，10 年期国债收益率将超过 4.50%，市场可能已经到达风险资产的关键临界点。因此，10X Research 目前已经清空全部仓位。
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加密做市商 QCP Capital 也在其最新市场报告中指出，ETH 风险逆转指标在近端已转为极度负值 (-12%)，表明市场避险情绪升温。此外，市场目前处于 ETH Gamma 空头状态，这意味着以太坊价格的剧烈波动可能会被放大。
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不过有人悲观也有人乐观。虽然比特币的价格未能持续强劲，但比特币生态的牛市却如期而至。这几日，社区都会流传一份 mint 清单，包含晚上需要冲锋的项目，情绪十分高涨。
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而对于山寨币交易来说，2024 年以来整个市场经历了许多疯狂。新价值币与 meme 币分庭抗礼，老牌价值币「一蹶不振」让人大呼价值投资一场空。不过在一些加密老人看来，如今正处于交易底部区间。如下图所示，山寨币交易信号显示目前已经进入「Sell your house」时间。/ Z) @4 Z* b# y9 r
& G. e# i: {) p h5 j0 z0 Q前 Ark Invest 加密负责人、现 Placeholder VC 合伙人 Chris Burniske 在社交媒体上发言称「市场存在明显的恐惧，而价格在合理范围内站稳脚跟，过度的价格被冲走，这是最终走高的准备」。此前 Chris 也曾表示，如果以色列和伊朗的紧张局势得到缓解（尚待确定），加密货币的杠杆重置和非坚定持有者抛售后，将是市场进入比特币减半期的一个很好的开端。
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一周前，Arthur Hayes 在博客文章中也曾写道，4 月中旬至 5 月初美国征税将抽离市场流动性，加之美联储持续缩表，市场或出现极度疲软。但自 5 月 1 日起，随着美联储放缓缩表速度以及美国财政部动用资金以刺激市场，新一轮加密牛市有望开启。
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