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随着价格的整合，比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而，交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
; A9 h: C8 B( @5 k( {# z; I自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来，比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
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! d P; i; ^8 E4 t自8月8日以来，价格没有跌破或超过这一区间，这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。% M5 R& G; W l2 ^: f- X: |/ x5 T
" R$ X7 y& M7 w' \- X阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软，根据CryptoQuant的数据，比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周，这甚至变成了负面的。
: v' k3 ]: n1 ^. Z
) A* N; \& A/ y4 J2 |8 `3 N5 D! G5 @2024年4月，比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值，恰逢比特币减半事件。然而，自那以后，它已降至今年的最低水平。) u3 @2 b- w4 ^1 t3 O" t
" q1 D6 j5 |8 q* h* w7 l" ]6 F) G那么，为什么比特币的需求会下降呢？
+ m4 y" d$ z2 h( \
3 { \ t* P- K. n+ o观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
" Y. s# {1 L- C& t7 h分析指出，流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月，随着BTC飙升至历史高点，比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。4 r' W( ^, t: G9 y
7 h2 t1 R+ T4 Y# ], S7 w2 y上周降至1300 BTC。
: `) ?0 F, G( d0 q: v) r [, z; q& R r4 ~% f6 c8 D
从SoSoValue上可以看出，自8月9日以来，流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产，但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。: S5 ~: M* H* f S) [6 ^
7 P/ V3 X9 O* u6 O; A2 F7 Z8 r" T鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
1 P' M( s) z7 r( L3 N% d4 k# a, @
* W7 z+ I' v5 {5 F鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
% h% w N& a, C: \7 p. `( }/ k9 x* r
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少，该数据显示，自3月以来，持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
0 K" f8 f7 Q# Z. ~0 e" K8 l3 g) u$ {) O# ? R* `
尽管鲸鱼活动放缓，但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。6 p4 u1 ~- z3 D. l9 g# }
6 ~7 E6 A5 O( }比特币会突破其区间吗？
5 ?( t3 A" @8 e- r" {" `随着对比特币需求的放缓，人们不禁要问，比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
^2 R' m" f; \8 {$ J* P% Y w
+ G' b; V _8 {% C% a, k" |" N1 K根据IntoTheBlock的数据，超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。( s; B; D) J2 K9 F! o
. J, A6 d' F5 X( i( k因此，突破62000美元将面临抛售压力，因为他们急于获利。
7 r. O: S! _7 ^# y2 T1 c
& b4 Z0 V9 l5 D3 @$ s: \! {技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数（RSI）也保持区间震荡，购买势头没有显著飙升。& H9 L3 A0 Z: P% ^+ B4 [" d( V5 y% E
* G& m$ c" w) r) {" O2 |位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而，短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。6 N3 h, s$ ` w' w
然而，由于交易所比特币供应量下降，短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
; x6 v' W! f8 s: G9 P8 O& D) i/ X+ w2 p
根据CryptoQuant的数据，交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此，尽管需求明显较低，但外汇供应也较低，从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
% F' G% `# `1 t* ] ~3 H
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