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[lastpost] => 2691885 比特币12万美元？贸易公司将特朗普的储备计划与大胆预测联系起来（转） 1731832394 人生如赌
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随着比特币再次发现自己处于价格发现模式，市场观察人士和狂热者很好奇：零售FOMO是否已经出现，或者我们在过去的牛市周期中看到的零售激增是否还在地平线上？使用来自活跃地址、历史周期和各种市场指标的数据，我们将研究比特币市场目前的状况以及它在不久的将来可能发出的信号。
Y7 F- [% _1 V$ b$ q兴趣上升
* l8 |& H' A8 M% [3 F+ q% s零售兴趣的最直接迹象之一是创建的新比特币地址的数量。从历史上看，随着新的散户投资者涌入市场，新地址的急剧增加往往标志着牛市的开始。然而，近几个月来，新地址的增长并不像人们预期的那样急剧。去年，我们在一天内创建了大约791000个新地址，这表明零售业对此非常感兴趣。相比之下，我们现在徘徊在较低的水平，尽管我们最近看到新地址略有增加0 I9 g+ |7 x1 j. l! t) C4 W9 C N
谷歌趋势也反映了这种缓和的兴趣。尽管过去一个月“比特币”的搜索量一直在增加，但仍远低于2021年和2017年的峰值。散户投资者似乎表现出了新的好奇心，但还没有像FOMO驱动的市场那样狂热兴奋。供应转移
* k$ F- t4 K+ g4 \5 o' ]5 V我们正在见证比特币从长期持有者向较新的短期持有者的轻微转变。这种供应的转变可能暗示着一个新的市场阶段的潜在开始，在这个阶段，经验丰富的持有者开始获利并向新的市场参与者出售。然而，转移的比特币总数仍然相对较低，这表明长期持有者尚未大量放弃他们的比特币
8 P/ A& s0 T6 f% i! s从历史上看，在2020-2021年的上一轮牛市中，我们看到长期持有者向新投资者大量外流，这推动了随后的价格反弹。目前，这种转变只是很小的，长期持有者似乎对当前的价格水平基本不感到担忧，尽管市场上涨，他们仍选择持有比特币。这种不愿出售的态度表明，持有者对进一步上涨的潜力充满信心。' l4 ]4 x, x0 Q- o7 t7 y
由点驱动的集会
/ @, i! ^. M! ], W* L7 E1 v6 i比特币最近反弹的一个关键方面是其现货驱动的性质，这与之前由杠杆头寸严重推动的牛市形成鲜明对比。对比特币衍生品的公开兴趣只略有增加，这与之前的峰值形成了鲜明对比。例如，在2022年FTX崩盘之前，未平仓合约很重要。没有过度杠杆的现货驱动市场往往更稳定、更有弹性，因为面临强制清算风险的投资者更少。大股东积累" y, K) Z4 t/ t5 y. c1 o8 p+ ~
有趣的是，虽然零售地址没有大幅增加，但持有至少100 BTC的“鲸鱼”地址一直在增加。在过去的几周里，持有大量BTC的钱包增加了数万枚硬币，价值达数十亿美元。这一增长表明，比特币最大的投资者相信，即使比特币达到历史高点，当前的价格水平仍有更大的增长空间' T6 B6 C; g8 {3 u4 K* H
在过去的牛市周期中，我们看到鲸鱼在市场峰值附近退出或减少头寸，这一次我们没有看到这种行为。经验丰富的持有者的这种积累趋势是一个强有力的看涨指标，因为它表明了对市场长期潜力的信心。! ~/ M0 L% h$ y, m) ]* y8 M
结论
6 v; h5 i! i4 O1 M2 p% h虽然比特币反弹至历史高点引起了新的关注，但我们还没有看到广泛零售FOMO的迹象。零售业兴趣低迷表明，我们可能还处于这次反弹的开始阶段。长期持有者仍然充满信心，鲸鱼正在积累，杠杆率仍然适中，所有这些都是健康、可持续反弹的指标。
( H h" H- j, A随着我们继续进入这一牛市周期，市场结构表明，零售驱动的更大增长的潜力仍然存在。如果这种零售兴趣成为现实，它可能会将比特币推向新的高度. @0 K( ]: c0 w$ }& P% q
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当前离线
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