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[虚拟币交流]
比特币大户Microstrategy明年挺进标普500？股民被动持币进程加速（转）
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财联社12月24日讯（编辑 马兰）周一，名义上的软件制造商、实际上的比特币杠杆投资者Microstrategy顺利通过所有入选门槛，加入纳斯达克100指数，
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全球那些追踪纳斯达克指数的投资人此后都被动持有了比特币资产。/ z' q7 q, T; C9 N# l' E
这在全球资本市场中引发了极大的争论，然而，Microstrategy的联合创始人兼执行主席Michael Saylor还在酝酿着更大的风暴。他认为，Microstrategy有望 x4 b2 F+ u5 u# C
: o% s* o: E# ~8 j* ^. [在2025年通过标普500指数的筛选，从而进入到一个更大的舞台。
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; l8 W6 y# U7 L Saylor表示，受益于比特币价值的上涨，Microstrategy的资产在2025年有望达到500亿美元，若比特币能再涨20%，那么该公司的年度投资收益将达到100亿
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美元，这将为进入标普500指数铺平道路。6 R* K' O& w; A
7 P4 _) m6 L3 u% D) F6 A3 p5 @ 按照编制规则，标普指数将美股市场中100家最大市值的公司纳入跟踪范围，且公司须在最近一个季度和连续四个季度的收益为正。8 t( U" V4 `! L. I0 w
) @! |8 y" W* \0 u 目前市值达到890亿美元的Microstrategy在体量上已经满足了条件，而在新的会计准则下，比特币投资收益将被纳入公司的净收入之中，这可能将消除盈利标$ d% Z" F* q! G0 ^6 x1 M
8 T5 p: P% z% L/ Y' |# a' a' o, c) \
准设置的最后障碍。+ [4 `0 C/ G+ o# U
; m! u# ^1 k. Y! w 实质上的比特币ETF, g" f1 Z* v2 ^% b( Z
" F9 Y+ @; f2 Y! l
Microstrategy的主营业务——软件营收在过去五年中雷打不动地保持在4.7亿美元左右，但非主营业务比特币投资却在今年为其创造了火箭般上窜的股价涨幅。, F! V! n& p- Q2 D P
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目前，该公司共持有44262枚比特币，总成本为277亿美元，而其市价则达到413亿美元。0 m- e- h- F" p$ s E/ a1 q
6 w$ v0 [2 O( h6 h 尽管Microstrategy的比特币战略看起来十分有利可图，但是不少专家仍认为其想要跻身标普指数的雄心过于天真。
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/ v* Z1 Y: E6 V z1 l; q( l 布鲁克林投资集团股票主管Antti Petajisto强调，标普指数成分股公司都有能产生销售额的对应业务，而Microstrategy本质上更像是一个比特币投资基金。因此，
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6 o/ z, D9 L" S! e- v2 @, T将Microstrategy纳入标普指数听起来有些可笑。
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7 ?/ n7 r: G2 Z' h7 d; h Jefferies指数策略主管Kaasha Saini则认为，Microstrategy被纳入标普的概率要低于Coinbase，因为后者也符合标准，也代表加密市场，且有真正的业务支持。4 x+ z- ?! D1 v! ^7 D
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但由于Coinbase属于金融行业，而该行业权重低于Microstrategy所在的科技业，所以其中又存在一些变数。. T+ [) G$ H2 R% |: e) ^! E
; u- s( P5 G" r8 ? 麦格理资本的指数策略师Edward Yoon补充称，即使MicroStrategy符合标准，标普也可能选择等待一两个季度再将其加入，就像特斯拉的情况一样。
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, ?& \, W: b" @! H1 t4 }, t' x 他指出，标普指数委员会不会希望出现一家公司加入该指数后立即面临降级风险的情况，鉴于波动性极大，目前很难预测Microstrategy会否顺利加入标普指数。- F5 Z% W- l9 q% U
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