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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势 Q1 [5 w! P) j; y0 U; B: r
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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$ f2 m# @$ C0 q# }3 A, _PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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& ^: G+ u( ^; |0 s( u: i: U3 |CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期7 ^6 K/ u) i9 _
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当前持仓成本:9 V8 ?; U3 B) H4 s1 i: y. N
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;9 K7 y# t: a7 A* M' x
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;8 ^9 X- `; ^) E# R4 R4 P
, h" G7 W. }5 m9 s) ~" s- X: ^& yETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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9 r, z9 c. y+ M0 G% u比特币价值回归:/ Y& L9 f% ^3 ^: ?9 ]+ E
2 H2 p9 c9 H1 o4 ~: f6 H市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。5 t6 U! o" z$ C% k2 z2 ]& x
( |2 e5 U& n t, g随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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4 [/ {. Q) C, M% K加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3 j n* n. p2 R, i3. 市场热点与反弹情况7 A: h* i" |3 Z$ Z" V! V8 l
/ G9 l! j) a- m6 a" CETH:- M7 k- `* q; T) t
7 A2 r- q! q8 A8 R$ P ^虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。* }' x1 [& r7 i! m4 @, [
# |7 \8 R3 `0 I% pBTC:1 a, [5 }7 R% o \+ j- z% S* ?
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。3 R% a/ c4 D. H& w7 {
4 D0 e2 @% L/ xSOL与XRP:/ k% }; E2 r1 g3 t
+ l7 }$ Q. d- K2 D( N1 E# MSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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# `9 O8 ]; r! Z" d9 N+ ]) o5 C: oXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:! s# G' Y+ d% T9 a1 |/ ^7 ?/ \
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。 L* n1 S) t& i
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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! B0 h8 O3 Y+ i4 m+ D( `: {4. AI赛道与新兴项目; y$ l: n- P8 h# c# C: c( \- Q
1 {: i( D. m& c6 aAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。! a' \4 x& e; X5 m& B
5 ]/ J w. E7 F( J2 N Q蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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/ F7 } f6 Z1 L1 `新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。, I; b! W9 W8 Z8 n$ a$ l
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市场展望
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0 S9 ]* t8 U( V# b& Y! `. B$ K随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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