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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管:人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转)
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称,在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易,而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际,比特币是一个“世代机遇”。" O. Q# g9 f7 i7 F% Z3 a
: x7 s# d6 H% ^( h" l$ YBitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示:“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”
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Park 指出,2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元,旨在增加ZF支出,同时还有去全球化趋势加剧,尤其是唐纳德·特朗普
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* q+ k% Y1 C/ X2 o7 s0 z) b3 r最近升级的互惠关税威胁。9 e3 y$ @8 y% X6 ~+ k
6 I* g3 d9 W* N4 pPark 还指出,市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”,指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”,共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”,以及他认为即将实施/ q6 `9 ~4 C( @2 n
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日,他告诉参议院银行委员会,美国经济“保持强劲”,美国“不需要急于调整”利率。
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$ V; ~' C0 c* ]& ? d5 ]: M1 s$ RBitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道:“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”3 j& u+ U( `, Z" f# C
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“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的,你看不到这一代机会,所以我们不一样了,”Park 补充道,他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。/ X1 Y* \0 \0 G/ [& x4 [6 Y
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根据 Deribit 的数据,比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90,低于年度高点 71.28,IV 百分位数为 12.3。) Y5 ^7 t# _; v& `9 r. E! ?9 E
, f, \( T) W* t7 m2 K0 }1 K: Z7 Y据 CoinGecko 数据,比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%,交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。5 V' e! X7 H$ J; d+ U+ C( u2 }
8 ~ K- m; E% f1 X今年到目前为止,比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间,但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。/ G. e5 r* Y( Q
) a+ t; u. R5 B追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分(总分为 100 分),表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善,但低于
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( h8 @+ u: {" ?! B上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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