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[lastpost] => 2810639 SkyBridge 的 Scaramucci 趁比特币下跌买入，称特朗普为“加密货币总统”。（转） 1772543486 爱美的女人
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的% o. o0 y# S. a$ z2 z+ Y6 r6 l5 C. E
比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要
: t/ ^" z9 s3 S1 w. c/ z5 q% g短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。
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* e7 L$ J: p6 h- k6 g比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内" y+ B A5 `6 S6 I! {: E$ c
实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。- i3 |; d+ u5 c8 [4 K; e+ ]
4 m6 K1 I& X8 X" u b然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。
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3 Y6 U; Q( }' Y% Y6 t% XSTH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。 r# C" y( H/ ~& z4 {
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尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。
# P: B& {* ~$ e
( x0 p- d! R* {. ?) @0 v$ E这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。0 S0 m2 E* r9 j% E
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比特币价格结构和风险区域* I8 l! Z C6 ?. K: i g
发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。& f3 S1 G; b3 G' v2 C7 P
7 W y @" y: V2 l这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。' A5 z3 W& Y8 b* I3 Y
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布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。
! d! h9 x. ^- i6 y- n7 _+ G& Q
2 p: M, A+ ^3 G/ x3 b但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。
3 {; u) f- f6 e: z( W0 ? b8 j# [/ H2 o* ?4 [3 u
这对比特币趋势意味着什么
% l) O: r4 }) [. R* _+ I: N0 Q未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。
; ~ d) d: ]2 v4 N, B$ O# m* r( I! h, v5 c1 j
如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。- y0 T. @6 J1 h& E+ \
5 |: V+ K7 u& s' i5 H. {总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。& g0 W K7 L5 z
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