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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。* m* E+ J! e8 e8 _
, g& ~* A. s" I9 ]. _# M但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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) J, U9 B& W8 B/ fUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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- o0 A9 L8 p. x' ]% ~! R$ B+ b/ k8 e开局艰难，但历史看好牛市; I7 f. _3 p+ ~% o1 r/ w: @ W
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。( [3 i. d9 |8 r" b
: m. C. S3 I7 [& }0 H来源：Alphractal3 m6 d3 g8 p2 Z' C
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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+ F- c+ E+ e. x4 p! y3 o0 _& N8 K尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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2 ^) t% n/ p# x0 C) }+ @4 ?* D+ d事情变得有趣了5 t J4 k9 e0 A3 ^! [4 a. p% c
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。# B- K8 a9 ~* f
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来源：X- @3 f: R6 ~' w- d2 N$ A8 v
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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% D* _5 C6 L3 N6 B+ s2 gBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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- W! z% t( c4 M- p" f( Y正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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/ U. I. G2 c+ O" x" J随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。3 C. K& q: |3 _& q/ @& F$ _" Z
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力; J! O$ A8 w q
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。9 m/ F' B& d. Y0 l% t u) y* Q
1 ~) M6 r, b5 H; f" m* W8 Y0 i
来源：TradingView
" V4 r! ^6 ~# m3 b' V5 K, b- F& M/ A5 Z) [. F9 G+ b9 q( ^
日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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?' ]3 y8 \+ I0 o, u3 L然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。! O& B8 `$ B+ e y8 V+ g2 a7 T7 v
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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