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[lastpost] => 2785722 比特币5大信号决定本轮牛熊走向（转） 1764565940 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。
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% z5 W: V' R- t) h: g7 U, f i& F+ z截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。4 Q7 c* p. f& m9 z
( C( e: Y& t- f- J6 Y9 [% x2 ?此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。8 Q* @6 l1 m6 D1 h! G
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贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊
. Y9 L3 ^; c2 X @12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。8 W8 M/ V8 r3 o- Z" Q6 j) t
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分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。) }3 }0 G7 o4 t9 L. k7 O ]/ q
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他说：/ V' {- Q- e" B, E
8 y2 t3 s$ l8 ^9 D“销量还会继续增长吗？”
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% N6 J9 q5 U$ i* m$ a( W% I: R因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？
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此举为何引发担忧？
) F- M/ v3 i$ e8 F; w8 E, x. Z比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。
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在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。
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由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。+ Q5 K- m. Y- E
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因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。
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( |) J* P6 T& X+ U; Z6 [8 B7 x对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。
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9 y) G% Q) A W* i然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。$ b' X$ L& J! K/ A/ W/ Z
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还会有更多销售吗？
. F' r& b+ F9 {# Y7 f; c然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。
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7 x0 m$ N2 I% j! ]* V6 C, l0 p, L对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。
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贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。
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通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。; N' [! ^3 K) ^9 y& d
! S0 {9 H% R0 T3 y4 X) P* D即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。
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截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。4 H C. E+ O. y8 I6 x# z# ~
) L8 g- N0 d) |来源：Trading View) B; {! U; Y+ Z* `! h7 K$ J( l
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要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。
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( w# Y% g7 c7 O& [, ?' d; F在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。
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最后想说的话
% _7 z3 {0 T7 P5 R$ {( W零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。- ? z5 ?1 H2 _% I. h7 s3 i
技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。
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