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[lastpost] => 2794703 马杜罗下台，比特币上涨：华尔街还没反应过来，比特币就飙升了1671%（转） 1768903813 g9527
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[虚拟币交流]
期权数据显示，比特币到6月底有30%的概率跌破8万美元。（转）
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在唐纳德·特朗普总统发表关税言论后，比特币 (BTC) 价格跌破 91,000 美元，来自去中心化交易场所的数据显示，未来几个月价格可能出现更大幅度的暴跌。9 p0 o6 T0 H) k7 G1 @
: J; |) Z2 e+ SDerive.xyz（一个用于链上期权、永续合约和结构化产品的去中心化协议）上的交易员认为，到 6 月底，比特币跌破 80,000 美元的可能性为 30%。5 k& \) z& |. F" u6 W' C
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Derive.xyz 研究主管 Sean Dawson 博士告诉 CoinDesk：“期权市场显示出明显的下行偏斜，到 6 月 26 日，比特币跌破 8 万美元的概率为 30%，而同期上涨至 12 万美元以上的概率为 19%。”5 C7 o3 h, ]- K; r- W
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期权是一种衍生合约，它允许你像在体育比赛中下注一样，对比特币的价格进行押注。运作方式如下：你支付少量费用来锁定一个“假设”交易。如果比特币价格上涨到某个预先设定的价格水平以上，你就能以低价买入，从而获得丰厚的利润。这就是看涨期权。
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如果价格跌破预设水平，你就可以通过高位卖出获利。这就是看跌期权。无论哪种情况，如果市场走势与预期不符，你都可能损失买入费和期权费。
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正是这种众包价格猜测揭示了人们对比特币价格跌破 80,000 美元的可能性高达 30% 的担忧。
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此举将使比特币价格跌至 2025 年 4 月以来的最低水平。当时，由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对其他国家的进口商品加征关税，比特币价格暴跌至 75,000 美元，全球市场因此受到冲击。4 ~: ?: n9 g( z! t5 C
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特朗普总统周末威胁要对来自10个欧洲国家的进口商品加征10%的关税，原因是这些国家反对他吞并格陵兰岛的计划，此举再次引发了人们对关税的担忧。比特币价格也从95,000美元跌至91,000美元。
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0 e2 x# p# F$ j; U7 {& _$ T8 U C0 P道森认为，这些地缘ZZ紧张局势可能会导致更大的损失。" x4 }1 T" x: k$ k8 ]2 p
: z! ~% ~6 ~1 H6 W/ @“美国和欧洲之间日益加剧的地缘ZZ紧张局势——尤其是在格陵兰岛附近——增加了政权更迭、重新回到高波动性环境的风险，而这种动态目前尚未反映在现货价格中，”他说道。: m+ G# G, E7 I% S9 ^
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他解释说，期权偏斜度（衡量看涨期权和看跌期权价格差异的指标）仍然为负值，这意味着短期内存在下行风险。Deribit 等中心化衍生品交易平台的交易活动也印证了这一点。! M' x" r% M: p7 Q( L! t
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在Derive和Deribit平台上，行权价在75,000美元至80,000美元之间的看跌期权未平仓合约非常集中。这意味着市场预期价格将下跌至70,000美元中段。
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Derive.xyz这数据挺有意思，下行概率比上行还高，看来市场有点虚啊 |
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