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[虚拟币交流]
谁在砸盘比特币？巨鲸减持压力抵消ETF买盘，3月反弹难掩需求真空（转）
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数据分析平台CryptoQuant数据显示，尽管机构买入量有所增加，比特币需求仍持续承压，表明更广泛的市场仍在抛售该代币。截至上月底，衡量比特币需求相对于新开采比特币数量的“表观需求”指标为负值，约达63000枚。这一状况出现在交易所交易基金（ETF）曾出现强劲买入期、迈克尔·塞勒旗下数字资产公司Strategy Inc．（MSTR.US）持续增持比特币的背景下。7 j" i- i$ t" B' ~" Z
- U" j: V. q+ Y9 _* N" N0 B. D报告指出：“散户及其他市场参与者的抛售量超过了机构的新增购买量。自2025年11月下旬以来持续的需求萎缩证实，整体市场仍处于派发阶段。”数据表明，市场正面临新需求被现有持有者减持所抵消的局面——这种动态即便在机构兴趣看似正在积聚时，也可能限制涨幅。: {* T: n& j9 v) l5 |1 S( p
! h7 G+ q8 ]& R5 g尽管比特币在刚刚过去的3月勉强结束了此前连续五个月的下跌僵局，录得约2.2%的小幅反弹，但市场整体反弹势头却显得后劲不足。其核心症结在于，被市场称为“巨鲸”的大型持币者已彻底由长期的积累模式转向了激进的净抛售模式，这一波巨大的抛售潮直接对冲了近期现货ETF及部分企业增持所带来的看涨情绪。7 W8 h6 y7 {' A9 a) L$ s+ p
& q! Y+ o9 d5 }, Y3 [从资金流向的历史脉络来看，这批巨鲸投资者曾在2024年的牛市行情中积累了约20万枚比特币。然而，自2025年中期价格触及高位后，这部分筹码开始大规模松动，并在2025年第四季度显著加速派发。8 a+ y6 T6 @* k) `6 _( x* T5 Z
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即便比特币价格在2026年3月底企稳于68000美元上方，但相较于2025年10月创下的126000美元历史巅峰，其跌幅依然接近45%。这种结构性的减仓行为反映出早期持有者对当前高利率宏观环境及地缘ZZ波动的风险厌恶，大户的持续离场成为了压制币价回升的主要阻力。
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与此同时，此前一直在加仓的中型投资者正放缓购买步伐，这又去除了另一层支撑。最近几周，美国本土的比特币需求亦有所减弱，溢价指数（衡量美国交易所与境外交易所之间价差的指标）再次转负，表明美国投资者已不再竞相抬升比特币价格。
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& S& z' r( v q8 a虽然以Strategy Inc．为首的企业机构在2026年第一季度继续逆势扩张，将其持仓规模推升至约76.2万枚的新高，且美国现货比特币 ETF 在3月也迎来了约13.2亿美元的净流入，扭转了此前长达四个月的资金流出态势，但这些买盘仍无法完全消弭市场的整体卖压。5 O5 Q3 @* ^0 G
/ A& u# @- f7 e+ H/ _ X3 \/ j. O) [不过，CryptoQuant表示，若宏观环境改善，特别是美伊冲突出现降级，比特币价格短期内可能反弹。报告称：“地缘ZZ紧张局势的缓和可能成为近期积极催化剂，有望触发一轮反弹性上涨。”/ P, C; b7 ^( `
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展望未来，由于抛售压力依然占据主导地位，市场对于比特币短期内的价格走势持谨慎态度。根据Polymarket等预测市场的最新赔率，交易员认为比特币在年内跌至55000美元水平的概率已高达74%。5 V, V+ |: I: n! |( j3 m
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在需求端未能出现爆发式增长的背景下，大户与机构之间的筹码换手将继续主导市场波动。当前这种“机构艰难接盘、大户撤退离场”的局面，预示着比特币可能需要更长的时间来消化高位抛售的冗余筹码，才能真正开启新一轮的趋势性上涨。
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巨鲸减持跟开闸似的，ETF买盘那点量根本扛不住啊！3月那2. |
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