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随着投资者基本消化对经济衰退、央行“收水”的预期,全球债市正在经历一轮全线反弹。 ; ^8 H' x2 V* e6 ]/ ~% O
5 H( v' C& B5 a; x0 |0 ^+ H7 A彭博指数显示,全球投资级债券5月份回报率接近1%,是去年7月以来首次录得月度涨幅。美国国债正迈向去年11月以来的最佳月度表现。一项衡量全球企业债的指标将创下自去年7月以来的最大涨幅,而新兴市场主权债也在上涨。 ' ?2 g$ v1 X& U/ r$ K
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市场乐观情绪渐浓. a N( b: D ] `- r5 m
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有分析指出,全球债市反弹的背后,是投资者已经基本消化对全球经济衰退、央行加息的预期。 & Q$ O+ N* h7 R6 d: S8 j2 ]% \
. i9 G% Z3 v+ |: p0 y2 s7 s在美国市场,美国一季度经济收缩幅度超过预期,美联储5月FOMC会议认为需要今年6月和7月的最近两次会议都加息50个基点,但同时暗示政策的灵活性,交易员大幅下调美联储加息预期。 : p' @0 d7 A5 N4 Z3 z
" G! H+ v2 A0 ?" L( |$ u另外不可忽视的一点是,上一阶段债市大跌使债券收益率上升至更具吸引力的水平。
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; M9 V5 g+ r% k; ^& w& I日本资产管理公司AssetManagementOne Co.的全球固定收益基金经理 Akira Takei表示:“我预计全球债券将在今年余下时间带来正回报。” “收益率已从峰值回落,因为越来越多的投资者看到了债券的价值。债市最糟糕的时期已经过去。”
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2 t& \ T" Z# Y" c6 ?8 N1 O2 O上周,资管类公司(包括养老基金和保险公司)上周将看涨美债的押注提高到2020年4月以来的最高水平。与此同时,摩根大通、摩根士丹利和太平洋投资管理公司都公开表示,全球债券抛售浪潮已经结束。
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截至发稿,10年期美债收益率已经从5月初3.20%的3年高位降低至至2.84%。 ' [- }4 m2 C& E, `+ z: z
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10年期德债收益率已从三周前1.19%的峰值降至1.05%。 7 x9 w/ P# m- `/ T
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- T' U! [# a4 ]) d7 H摩根大通资产香港首席亚洲市场策略师Tai Hui表示投资者现在应该增配固收资产。Hui说:
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