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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
6 Z7 a$ f" v1 h8 y# C K以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. 0 d' T, x& w7 _" ?! z7 y
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 6 c6 U: Z# D& A
以太坊基金集体亏损
; t$ r8 \3 i! `7 D根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
4 V) h. \; T6 f! |2 |* }与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
/ [7 P! ]4 N9 C/ B# V: S( ?与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
W* P6 F7 D1 ^! {1 u0 z6 c a
5 F2 T: L1 l# I9 l& T2 w0 @+ H5 m编辑切换为居中 + G$ u- ^, l2 Y5 R
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
; X$ l& Z2 E* c1 [4 g; d这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 ( T$ d k; v$ Z* K% I! t' F; q4 @
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 " K! D' @4 |$ ~2 `/ D9 R2 N5 s
' r) D8 _5 G+ `9 i& p+ ?编辑切换为居中 $ R' c: K- x& v3 R/ v/ G% r: k
6月5日的TVL以太坊
. \- K; i" W+ w% N但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 & _+ }" M. ]$ {0 U8 |: \, Q
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
/ r, {: M- E0 v) X" J; s男性讲述金融时报:
1 G% h3 s5 A* C: A9 T2 _' F“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
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呆滞的技术面
f2 H" T2 ?& y/ Z" q s3 H自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 % I0 a5 g4 M- h8 y M
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 * t3 I$ }3 y. n' Z) q3 i
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
+ A. d' N2 @. B3 N- I
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编辑切换为居中
/ [ ~1 `6 ~6 W6 W. M* rETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 2 ` g% r& e S: J( x* F
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
& ~! R+ [, z3 B7 t交易所的ETH储备正在增加
8 y$ v% _& V- |- WCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
+ ~1 D( q7 P! t自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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3 Q8 u) J" u2 C9 U) n5 _编辑切换为居中
s" A/ g; b# A以太坊外汇储备
5 E* ^5 V# @$ q4 z8 z通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
4 H) G* c% V: j6 R A来源：金色财经 |
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