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小分3种情况:
' V" |0 _# s- r3 W, a2 c
! _5 l l7 c, z1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
- b) W7 f, g0 l8 f3 |' k. P% p
* D2 c2 B! C5 k6 ?; Y, C9 N2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。 j& w6 W g- M8 n8 O. N
1 i2 j8 S, c3 F9 f: X% [/ e
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。& w7 `# i, ~, a3 E, k
# H3 r* V/ i! U. ?9 J# h, v1 i2张牌8或9点的情况有:9 l2 T1 B1 w; ~$ ~/ X/ j; _
7 {( Z# w! ^7 C
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
, A7 i; W2 w. E) w7 B0 g2 A* ]& j7 i- |$ o
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
* F& w5 }8 w3 y1 h& b
; }+ R3 z6 j6 j" H9 r# N4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4155 v5 |7 L" z# r' L( ?) {/ `
+ u: i1 h2 H. J- h8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
- I7 D+ B" Z9 c
7 x/ b; F& Y2 o1 b1 C: ^由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。; `/ y5 ?& M0 Q% J3 |0 R# o, R6 d
( z1 n9 n& X8 b% Y2 E. b& x) p通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。* p$ h" r/ l: v$ O! P4 m
, J) @; t, J0 o! u9 I7 r9 l那么我们可以得出
- Z/ Q3 T9 ^2 {) @) g8 Q" l9 l( `' f3 Q8 Y. w2 E
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662# H1 j9 \3 b; z# l! m7 P* t
" V( W# _. D5 |9 B; Y) ]0 X$ \% s$ Z
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 ! t% p& n3 S7 o* s- H
( n% }! [7 ^8 j1 V' s
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491/ O# T5 C8 a2 i6 }7 Q% _2 o
! H7 I& W6 s9 X所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323; i( b- J; t) b
; t, @" R" p. {* x6 S) I; W
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
% _7 G) A: g' B3 J7 `* }8 h9 | |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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