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小分3种情况:
) @1 ^, y! O7 X, C4 j; p/ B( |' E5 k0 T$ q: W8 J q
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。9 g+ {5 U1 m* v. Y* ~0 R3 q7 Z
; U4 m- i" v5 Z. P% ?$ ^# Q; W
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
6 a/ l8 m3 Y+ l! d v, j
2 r7 j) Y) \& h, ?. P. ~. ^3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
4 R$ _5 z C. M
: {) s O2 V/ ^% m2张牌8或9点的情况有:# Q6 K% \+ m( U. j* K' G4 I
6 l$ y" i: g8 r( P) K9 l$ B
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
( A2 q/ o, h7 I' F! |0 Q1 T9 S! {+ T- p* G# c
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
+ D8 @& ^$ D; J* u6 ~ x" v9 z3 s) I- ^# G' ?1 ^" `) f1 Z
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
% v: h3 `: d2 ?+ P( R2 a# n( K0 H. p. ]; \' G4 }
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4151 H# l7 e z3 t. s+ J7 {9 V
6 b" S: Q; l' }* Z' S由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
+ |8 x+ N1 p+ t5 ]# ~1 R, |, s5 T2 }; O3 h
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。/ \. E( F4 O9 c
6 K" g* s8 \3 e6 ^
那么我们可以得出
. I1 R$ @+ t( ] q5 H7 L$ q5 `! X$ ^% s
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
$ A$ S: N% w- n/ }; I
& D0 O2 S) V. ?* ?$ o; }2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 6 m0 e: F9 k. s1 c/ m$ V: p
4 _ u% @+ q( x9 Z7 B3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491& @5 D( n& s3 e$ a" J2 `
* e2 v+ ]$ p% Y6 N
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
( y4 a2 o, J1 S+ l" A* [: v: Y# n4 O4 a6 f9 m p4 n
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677/ K7 M" \# m* T' H% d5 J
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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