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市场弱势,风险在加剧。BTC出现偏空的信号。这里并不是说btc就要开启大跌了。但是要注意风险,控制仓位。不可盲目乐观。虽然btc不一定见顶,但是山寨的期望值变低。 最大的不利信号是这段时间山寨的表现最近两周的btc横盘,本应该山寨表现的时候,山寨表现的非常一般 btc强势突破前高,那么大概率还会继续上涨。即使是顶部,也会需要一定的时间柱顶。所以刚突破之后的几天,大概率不会出现大跌的。所以最近两周应该是最安全的时间,btc的大阳线,确定了这次行情的启动。那么那些原先看空,没有仓位的人就会进场。 大家的共识,btc先涨,山寨随后。 但是实际的山寨表现呢?涨幅非常有限,除去跟着btc一起涨大阳线之外。其他时候的阳线非常的少。市场没有集中的热点 这些现象都这表明了大量资金并不认可这波行情的持续性。那么之后山寨的期望值就不高了。因为在btc3.4万的时候,大量资金都不愿意炒作山寨。即使btc拉盘到4w,就更加不愿意了。因为在4w,BTC见顶的大概率就跟大。而如果btc下跌,那山寨基本就继续下跌。 市场的第二大不好信号来自资金层面链上btc获利卖出的金额比较大,直接创下今年新高,说明大量筹码在离场。 长期持有者占比下降,获利的可能是长期的持有者。虽然,这些资金面的不利信号并不能单独作为判断的依据,但是可以作为参考信号。 合约和借贷的风险提示 BTC整体的合约持仓量已经达到154亿美金,成为今年的最高点。包括CME的持仓也增加到了35亿美金,创下了今年的最高。合约持仓量非常大的时候,往往会有短期的调整。 我们现在需要的是耐心再耐心,要么等3万5的趋势线上沿有效突破再择机加仓,要么等回踩3万2水平支撑做一次多。 我们需要关注这个阶段,哪些币比较抗跌。一般在第一次大盘调整完毕后这些币会至少再强势一次。 如果自己手里的币没有怎么涨,耐心等待板块轮动即可,不要频繁换车。如果有空仓的,就优先找强势币种布局,或者等我通知即可。 最后再强调一下,目前市场的主旋律是比特币的ETF,我们要抓主要节奏。现在的行情并不是大牛市,环境还不足够好,但是在熊市的情况下有这种表现已经足够了,所以大家不需要去追求一定的底部,感觉市场冷淡下来了就开始布局,交易是具有阶段性的,大周期还是不会变,这一轮不管持续时间多久,明年减半小牛市依然会来。 这两天sats涨了不少,能带动比特币生态的一波热度,BTC生态:RIF、STX、ORDI,可以作为重点关注对象。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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