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尽管加密社区热切等待美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准，; `4 h+ {. D" S3 p
# m( `1 m6 ^ S S
但一些分析师警告称，这可能会给加密货币交易所带来不良后果。6 h1 Y6 n, R' M
一些行业观察家预测，现货比特币 ETF 可能会在 2024 年初开始交易，如果与2 @& u% _& l9 f8 S' S- \+ z- @
/ e: Z" F1 g/ ?" F
预计 4 月份比特币即将到来的区块奖励减半相结合，Blockstream 首席执行官 3 z4 `- [" j$ _8 y5 X* r2 S
( \1 t; L1 y$ b- s" D5 L Q/ dAdam Back 认为这可能会推动 BTC 升至 10 万美元。
1 g5 n4 n5 C! q* m5 Z( a# ?2 }0 z7 i% n5 o& t8 U: Z( h+ Z% h# R
Jan3 首席执行官 Samson Mow 等比特币支持者表示，美国批准现货比特币
6 z8 W/ J5 K: Q: M/ w$ f3 N6 |0 j9 q2 J6 K) S
ETF 甚至可能在接下来的“几天到几周”内推动比特币价格升至 100 万美元。2 N+ F0 s6 s8 x: b* U
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但 ETF Store 总裁 Nate Geraci 和 Bloomberg ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 表示，! |, Z- I2 a; E* T# Y1 ]2 e3 T
h }, W1 Q/ h5 A8 w: [! ~% ~& v/ q对于中心化加密货币交易所的预测并不那么乐观。
! G' @5 f+ A2 I8 x9 q
( y1 v( ^9 Q5 dGeraci 于 12 月 17 日在 X（前 Twitter）上写道，一旦获得批准，美国潜在的现) J% b. S% {, ^% n3 t
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货比特币 ETF 将为加密货币交易所带来一场“大屠杀”。
6 ~" \ |' ]) l! y
6 ?6 X) c/ U' D3 @5 r' DGeraci 表示，散户现货比特币 ETF 买家和卖家将受益于基础机构交易执行和佣金。
- J3 r% s4 O# v5 k& j9 c; u' Z$ _* Y, l
另一方面，加密货币交易所的散户用户将获得“散户交易执行和佣金”，并强调这些: H5 V" x# ]- P0 C! \
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需要改进才能与现货比特币 ETF 竞争。
7 @, v5 z% o- l O, e3 O) J) z* L- Q* ]5 Z% a5 O3 h2 f4 t
彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 强调，现货比特币 ETF 的交易费用为 0.01%，这( U. \/ S3 A/ ^. S e# j
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是 ETF 交易的平均费用。
$ g5 c4 h3 J1 M* d+ y5 m" y" s( q9 `8 c
相比之下，Coinbase 等交易所的交易成本达到 0.6%，具体取决于加密货币、交易; n; C; q y" u8 b
" y: u" V0 I# y. x L" v1 Y& a
规模和交易对。
" K* f. E5 i) ?8 D" }5 ?5 \% s* l5 N7 a- Y! U
Balchunas 认为，一旦获得批准，现货比特币 ETF 将为加密行业带来更多的价格竞
6 c3 c) l0 j* i* S6 N
5 y6 _" `; s; ^/ T6 h& G争，为那些在超级碗等活动中花费大量现金宣传其服务的交易所带来资金。
6 c7 i: U/ z- }9 d+ d1 d. E, y' K k
从历史上看，Coinbase 的大部分收入来自交易费。 2022 年，Coinbase 从机构和散! G8 o# }; Y% M: ?- c1 x; S% l3 r
$ ?3 y. {$ B# J" Z
户投资者那里赚取了 24 亿美元的交易费用，占其 31 亿美元总净收入的 77%。 不
O& ~* j7 b+ W, q; X2 p0 [* v9 J
# A. y8 g5 {2 H- L过，该公司一直在努力减少对费用的依赖，积极将收入来源多元化到订阅等其他创
+ Y5 r$ m; i5 e9 o% u
1 U+ M- f; e, s1 R& F1 G1 e收服务。3 L1 f, W. }0 g8 N5 p h& @! |. V) E
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