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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人* w% J0 |; q5 _
Y6 s- M& t, j, |7 I8 t认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，0 J+ n2 F b& p" B5 K9 G! m# o
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而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
9 a8 e7 U+ @5 k. c1 W$ V6 A
" M2 M! J; C1 B! m$ ~的千禧一代。9 S- b6 D- F& Y. U; Y/ ]- x
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
4 C# D/ ?& Q" S$ d' ~7 t( Z4 Y& v+ r% T% l8 `4 e8 d/ J
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
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" o$ P8 Y1 s- W2 W7 Q8 e L 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据* k( s9 B7 e. k0 _
2 p! s: O& Y7 C《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
0 k0 @- f" N8 |9 [
( x& ^/ |& s0 U, \, Z) n; `的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》# V8 |, n! a' V
9 l8 _/ |8 G& k0 Q报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；/ a0 s' I" {& G% V* }/ `3 m0 |( g
- O' S7 w: r l4 S1 [10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
; q9 |+ ]5 F0 f9 E- z, v( G
/ g3 \5 z. W# h UETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
7 [6 x( |, D9 A
5 K( w( A2 I' n" _" Q8 e据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降3 f. G* |" a5 Q8 T: \
* p% J4 R2 m( q5 T) M F1 ]息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
- J& D; X3 `6 X9 I/ _& O$ c) \2 P- m% I+ F; q8 X/ L% L9 C
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
# N/ @4 @. L6 W; G, |% @; E3 ^
4 e# j' N6 \/ I: g世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
; T& I" z3 y/ m5 f
; b3 |. ]# ^2 z- e传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
& b- ]4 h/ a5 h/ O
; }$ s& u% ]/ K% t到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
7 X0 @3 D9 n3 N- A: C9 N0 N7 {1 O$ A, u
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
* \& G- @# U! o+ h' t8 B
0 _! G0 f9 E+ Z2 O+ h0 Y本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体; i' d' H4 m) U
0 w% a3 v) N d" k, e& Z$ G1 W系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
! U; u% i" d: a" w2 v e( }
, f. K+ Z( M9 j! M, o+ W币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致( c- ~' y& g9 A" x/ \+ Z
. H' A) o; }$ t7 [) B
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富3 ]' b& N' R* a+ R
; q) o5 ]' H" t( u
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
/ E' {# f6 G' A' R7 l. H5 j; r& Y
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