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[lastpost] => 2647493 低迷的行情将持续多久?周期性的大牛市即将到来(转) 1714905763 Lhrlhrgo
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3月1日消息,据英国《金融时报》报道,比特币价格在兑许多货币的比率中创下新的纪录高位。9 ]2 h, a" p: ]. B
$ _3 _7 z7 N' k/ f( w- g% c2 W. [/ g6 S
美国批准比特币现货ETF的消息助长了市场的热情。预期在四月底比特币挖矿产出减半加剧了市场的
6 d( ?( P% `5 {2 o8 @; ]2 W6 _" i& S& B1 [
狂热。预期下一次减半的买家需求上升,解释了为什么加密货币牛市现在愉快地预测比特币价格很快9 Q% u% g' T. t' D, V0 n
3 F8 J8 L! w. y9 \% Y* ]# D
将超过100,000美元。
! k# K% l) u% ~- ^4 F4 ^0 Z! k [* U8 c: n
仔细观察,这种看涨目标似乎有些可疑。根据摩根大通的估计,目前的生产成本——主要是用于进
0 D2 Z2 c1 N2 Y& X; w/ [( Z9 n$ h X7 d6 V4 j1 J
行挖矿计算的电力成本——约为27,000美元。这为比特币设定了一个价格底线。减半后,这个价格将( ]) n H6 z4 P# d
7 d5 Y5 I: `3 z. {' `% ]# g
短期内跳升至约50,000美元。
9 ~% b3 X; C3 G% R" o. C) ]. _0 K @, C
然而,最近的激增使比特币价格远远超过了生产成本。对于比特币而言,这种情况并不可持续。此外,7 |* ]) `' h2 i# a" Q' J
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这些成本在减半后不久就应该开始下降,因为效率低下的矿工将退出市场,无法跟上步伐。随着旧机. ?) s4 |1 c; d$ ^" ?4 c8 ~* J2 u
0 O7 Z5 k8 V9 {3 c0 a器被淘汰,哈希率应该会下降,生产成本也会随之降低。在某个时候,价格上涨势头将会减弱。假设6 X( _6 h' X/ y$ _6 D
+ Z" a4 R2 z. h
挖矿处理能力下降了五分之一,那么生产成本相应将下降到约43,000美元左右。* y3 A @9 y3 q8 K- F, X& @; a, t
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当前离线
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