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[lastpost] => 2657343 分析称:比特币只有12.9%流通量留在交易所(转) 1719359568 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币(BTC)将进入 300 天牛市?这一关键指标揭示了什么(转)
[复制链接]
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加密货币分析师Axel Adler表示,比特币 [BTC]可能会进入300 天的牛市。来自CryptoQuant的短期持有者利润数据显示,牛市正如火如荼地进行。
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, K9 r: j/ L) f8 C目前价格仅比两个月前的 73.7 万美元高点低 4.2%,且减半事件已经过去,购买压力可能呈上升趋势。
/ u9 G. k% N/ Y3 l3 U# M1 Q. R7 J
, H9 ?, W) v0 r; t( [未平仓合约表明价格还有更大的上涨空间。
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8 ]5 r& K9 N& F0 k& {( F0 Q$ F评估之前的峰值以及对未来的预测
' l5 D+ i9 B4 H$ x! e" o5 [) s短期持有人花费产出利润率 (STH SOPR) 的 90 天 SMA 在 2018 年 1 月达到峰值 1.064,在 2021 年 3 月达到峰值 1.057。这表明 STH 利润峰值区间为 1.064-1.057。: L C0 `* o3 A# c( [7 ~
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截至发稿时,STH SOPR 的 90 天移动平均线为 1.015。) D9 P" ?0 c E! W. Y& O! t/ c
+ u; Q2 E/ Q+ V! o2 J/ N这表明上涨空间更大,而且顶部很可能尚未到来。此外,SOPR 90DMA 达到 1.015 与周期峰值之间有 291 天。" R+ V7 G, D I' f
0 I, M& g6 J+ _' K! M然而,2020-21 周期中相同值之间仅相差 105 天。因此,我们可能会经历三到十二个月的牛市。
2 o7 G$ ^# h) p' M) B) P该分析师还指出,近期持仓量7日移动平均线仅上涨9%。
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相比之下,2024 年 1 月的涨幅为 20%,2021 年的多次 OI 7DMA 变动也接近 20%。* ?. i$ g' c) A7 R
6 K4 N- H, C5 a
综合起来,这两项观察结果都支持比特币市场才刚刚开始反弹的观点。/ r7 c- }& r2 G. Y. {9 O: Q
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突破 ATH 后需要注意的阻力位是多少?: b, P3 L( j! i! M+ S; v
局部范围(紫色)和不平衡(白色)都被令人信服地打破了。如果这种势头持续下去,73,700 美元的高点可能很快就会被扫除。
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; r8 m7 A& U. Y( I3 r IRSI 尚未突破 70,这将是 BTC 在历史高点附近占据看涨主导地位的强烈信号。& K. z1 B d& k' s
+ m9 ~; m( x# E. _% F9 kCMF 飙升至 +0.05 以上,表明资本大量流入和需求增加。 h1 Y% q# ]# W) F( [
* ~! O$ ]( X0 D+ n* z" T+ x( |斐波那契扩展位(浅HS)显示 79.2 万美元、8.81 万美元和 9.7 万美元是下一个需要关注的阻力位。
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