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[lastpost] => 2796632 今日虚拟币市场是一个普跌了 1768326143 叫我十三
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势 s0 v- w2 G- M1 o
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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/ l. d2 b' U5 FPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。1 K; M+ ^4 A; @4 {" l
! d+ Y# T: S0 {7 qCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期* M( f. A8 z1 ?3 V) ?/ i8 m- {
5 s6 L3 @8 ]- }( ^6 _
当前持仓成本:
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3 [: r6 n/ v4 o3 f3 h# O" E机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;7 B0 {; h7 D. w" a2 Z8 Y
% X$ I% y' T% ]微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;1 ]8 Y7 f" [: K2 y% v1 d
/ G' ~+ V$ b/ l* S7 q3 F/ Z$ j; hETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
( Z& i0 W8 U0 S9 r$ z
( l ?/ z3 v) }% G比特币价值回归:1 l* E9 r: @' z; u
; T# e$ u. q) o, e: W市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
* ]' f2 u. T1 p7 ]* }, b8 Y& z x2 K" N0 e, d( r& m
随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
: G2 r* f# h3 y" T2 N" c& z& J) r
v& G6 h7 {9 k! N加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
' q4 }5 }, W. O3 o* {0 @. d) {, a" \
! ^; f6 q/ A+ A3 I* `: |- V3. 市场热点与反弹情况( u; C5 C: p4 i; [: {
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ETH:, B4 `: a( @/ C: {* E- P- C7 }
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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6 d' p9 `* r, r% OBTC:! s& j8 Z+ o! ?! [* m
1 I" i: G2 q6 _8 j& b( s尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。- i" Z/ t6 V. E9 t8 @
# x6 n4 K1 g. M+ }1 H' F/ ]
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。" n% |! q7 r- Q/ j3 S
" X4 d/ P' H8 c& |SOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。: F' k) R* U- i! E, f+ p; w
4 N) F9 o9 S: l
XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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. i1 V5 _ ?; d R其他热点项目:% v( O5 a9 L' J
+ \9 r% P, z! r% u( v
涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。$ Q2 {) e5 i9 R0 b; N3 l. l
# `9 _0 A3 ]) \2 J& n B. z山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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( A# y' Y0 X2 i1 z# B3 |; ?+ n4 K4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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! H3 g* @3 N+ t1 a5 eAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
. a: w9 Q! z0 x9 M, R
* x) P& B. h" H- P8 j; y蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
$ d& r" y2 B9 J( V& h0 e G9 V
+ _- t, r/ B8 y. b新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。# N% J' d5 S C
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