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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势# y v6 i. j: P }+ ]% Q3 }
) F. a6 d# N0 l8 J2 G% r, z过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。) Q6 e- @$ I7 l( G
4 `/ F" b" @( l1 yPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。, x, ~7 c. r, u# ~4 t& n3 V
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
! t2 @4 n! W7 t
: [; |5 J3 @8 W& A2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期4 M% S, w$ P0 Y/ L/ L: N! U! t
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当前持仓成本:+ K9 N4 \* [' T1 m+ \! d8 u
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;0 K2 G, z5 \* _
4 W i2 F; |0 @2 z: F0 m+ {, d3 Q7 G
ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
/ }7 R. S& r: D# K! f
; x# z- C, h0 O! V* j0 D: j9 v比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。3 n% K, n0 ]) c2 v! N/ o1 N5 e
. i# [- U, p( j1 t! p8 J, d0 U随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。+ l( }( v R: t, h( O" l2 ?
" `; S) D" j) J加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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ETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。: B# L1 J& Y/ {# D# a0 |( G
3 [. J7 Y$ A }+ M0 G如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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) D/ D" J9 l2 _' QSOL与XRP:( \: l7 o/ L) @* I/ L% r0 P4 o2 N
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。' g* Y; H* W0 Z
( v9 v H5 t/ PXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。( N0 g& M. v; ~) [/ R, P7 q
# K# e: }( O' u) y+ n5 [: O其他热点项目:
/ X1 |( {9 x% g6 t6 r" E$ Z) k+ Z
7 g5 M5 Q; g9 q0 j: e# _( i s- s) M涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。' ?5 u4 E+ s. ]' }7 z
. k: P# s5 F2 n' p) O: v山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
6 c8 e" x* k4 A0 ]
# ?6 H+ ^9 ~) N: u I0 V4. AI赛道与新兴项目9 i2 s6 B7 N. R) ?8 y a1 t
, l6 U3 g, V- T4 ]/ F- V E# RAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。2 r; }% U2 Z$ V$ v2 H! k
5 _& w& |* ~2 e7 l蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
3 J/ k, c f5 \6 L. }( t0 R
- H2 g2 X( u7 d, a v新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。& Z$ b, }/ ~, I' _
$ Q/ @6 z1 ~( u) W$ i
市场展望0 M' o7 t6 X3 P x
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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