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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势2 ?1 y' k+ d& G. X( x$ {2 X
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
1 N/ Z$ n w& J D( x3 a% B+ h
5 I* w! l9 _+ V+ y6 {6 ^PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
4 p& s' A \& v! s; E! m9 N+ U; V, N) ^
CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
2 g' I' X% B5 O2 ]# X6 g
7 F3 Z. M: c. w6 `' ]# d' y) c7 C2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期! ^- X1 w+ \3 a
7 `9 ?/ u9 X/ s9 v8 Y4 R+ ~- \* f
当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;+ l# z- q$ p# ~6 j
3 M. `- A. S( c4 l1 |7 B8 ?0 K
微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
# v6 K$ l0 ^1 F. s( Y$ n* K- q& u& [5 |% c" O5 ~
ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。8 N$ R8 x) t# K- {; j
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比特币价值回归:
; a/ \, F, r- k0 ~/ y3 d- E6 J" |! {8 i0 Z" R* C
市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
$ j% S8 B/ ?% q
4 I' H' U& Q9 a4 I2 T随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。: \( p: Z. z5 q }
8 L' a5 R" c5 T1 q0 a% D G5 D
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。' ]; D: Y. ^; U e8 T5 F5 |3 D
8 p) H$ f3 \' m; Q6 E3. 市场热点与反弹情况
# d, j" F7 l9 s- Z/ z3 ]" r/ C1 Q/ |8 N D; {
ETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
2 W2 a7 U5 r" A) H' |. h' \6 N) D% q/ G$ c% \# e: t& z$ i1 |
机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
+ D9 n: {' i1 w1 G) h; f. O) e- M# ?; U& Z/ n8 `' }
BTC: P' {7 j. p% H; Y5 V; S( T" M3 A
% @1 e5 T% Y( D( s! G p; a尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
; X( y6 d8 ^2 L+ V6 s2 A7 e! ]0 Y5 }2 m4 s, e1 H% w# @
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
) Z, X5 w& x \$ ]' t- I0 E
) c1 _7 x' l4 Y/ Z8 k( ESOL与XRP:0 m8 ?$ o: \) Q* ~9 O% i; z, h
5 |4 ~2 ~$ G( B) YSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。2 N+ ]7 E3 L& G. u8 q+ J# G
; g- y9 C6 O6 ~) a+ G4 X# X
XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。0 B1 |: P# h w5 l
6 y: B3 ~: I( {
其他热点项目:
9 J* u2 ^( `6 e/ y5 _- c5 ~
. ]+ o/ `5 n' E4 y( M6 T; \涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
9 K2 h7 b- V B5 H' s6 ~3 c, L; y0 J) e( r
山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。& Z5 ]1 O9 X2 R* H6 w0 t1 @0 `
) }- h& C- T' G# s8 s6 {4. AI赛道与新兴项目. `; ?% _/ L1 ^8 _# ]* S
7 A2 {$ m3 v! M L Z' H
AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
: P) _- @8 t3 Q/ C1 H9 Y) B5 h8 ]0 [6 \
蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。& F/ h! i) h# l) f% ~+ ~4 h
7 [. c# O& }7 s1 n: K0 ^新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
$ M; ~+ Z% H1 V1 k# H9 b! c1 e# t
市场展望
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6 I. a3 e7 A$ e1 Y; s随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。- r q, U0 S# t* c$ W7 o
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当前离线
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