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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。( }& s3 z+ q# z+ S: q1 t
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。7 I3 c% V; u2 S( b1 N
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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# h# @2 H( V6 ]4 R. @ 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。. b, [: T- v: @2 e( d% p; T" T
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。2 q# b" T$ K+ u' L% p
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间9 R: d& Y- b2 @+ o8 S
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”3 B' L" a. W3 S
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" v. e0 n0 g4 {4 x) N: B! g 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。: d3 m! u: m. w
% W4 S4 X8 n$ x4 L. M8 n “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在4 @9 o( |# f7 M* m$ J
7 ?) L: ^2 @0 p( U; ]积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”. |6 ^& @% @: ^1 n3 [6 u; Y$ O0 _
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。2 W# C m( N) s/ i- J: [1 B
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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* _% @/ r- t$ a 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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* c( e' T1 v1 s& @! c& w 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。' E9 ^1 c( p3 a2 N4 j: L& Z
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。5 I9 S$ ~- L" \% y" U
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，- F+ s# b, M$ |5 r
; j3 L. Z* m2 |7 T9 x市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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