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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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- s8 H% Q& u. Y( k& L但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。 n# u9 G# b: {
: c) J( C2 J+ G& SUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？2 l8 U8 x! D/ y7 c# M
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市9 e% ^$ C/ w1 k* V, E' [
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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" a; y, g# f+ Z1 q来源：Alphractal, d4 A9 V) P. W
+ H! Q% |1 Z- `7 P% ^1 @15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。8 U" f2 S" }/ C! _! D
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事情变得有趣了
2 l5 [% G# z4 w2 ?. ]# n( [6 E/ Z7 vBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。0 W1 e+ q7 |3 r2 [
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来源：X* J! v4 h0 T% ]
) K& P) c e! M1 S( I根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。9 l5 I; R( N5 b, Y
: |2 v5 W( t, ^! T1 `BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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! V: x, q4 O8 o% {9 I) O随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。) ~9 p+ ~' B% @# E' ^. l
( w ~( k6 l( ^空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
: l) a. j' A K: w经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。' h8 S1 k+ O) i6 ?8 Y9 v
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来源：TradingView7 T2 Q4 O. W4 ?) B4 `$ ^
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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8 t. @- |% G& {, e4 z1 M! m) y然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。4 G0 n6 M0 L+ V/ s* w8 F1 o# o
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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