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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 ( J' o/ u& E) a

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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔; n- V3 L$ Y, r/ W

9 E! x3 \! e2 z6 T7 Y1 _  M三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，" P0 D! w; I4 ~/ c# M* ]3 h- I( B
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）1 M# q/ P) W! T: I& O8 `
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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* o$ u. s- M( [当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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2 _/ ?6 |8 P) }' J亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，+ y1 h5 ]5 _7 m! {# k

- o+ @# x8 I' c3 Z9 o但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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- H3 s3 }" n  r, h排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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% w# y. p+ f' m" L( ?但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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  Z# b- P2 o  G: C几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。$ y5 y! ~9 W, l1 `
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，3 U& g& ]4 a* C) G7 L
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就是回避了大的亏损，# C, }1 E' V/ W% }5 o# U  X0 Q* |
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，9 G+ o1 O5 m6 e
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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