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[体育菠菜心得方法] 体育博彩中的相似盘口赔率应该如何进行分析(2)
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1#
莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑(2:2)
: E5 \* ~: D. r" i& k2 b; g6 S2 o2 v+ g3 i5 d% M
SSP1.79 3.57 3.57, ! ~" B7 L2 ^* g0 }2 O) ^+ c
威廉1.90 3.20 3.50, 5 `* O" \( t) T& i
立博1.91 3.30 4.00, # }$ [& T, {( r4 H" e0 g# G+ `0 j4 b
伟德2.00 3.25 3.25—1.90 3.25 3.50, - l0 ]4 P/ A7 j) D5 A6 {
Interwetten1.85 3.20 3.50,
, P; y: r4 ~4 o8 C! s* W+ `, RBET365:2.10 3.29 3.29,
7 e9 u- c: n. |+ N/ }9 d易胜博2.00 3.20 3.10—2.05 3.20 3.00,
  a; \0 W0 J2 `2 z3 I, DUnibet2.15 3.30 3.25—2.10 3.30 3.40, ( _+ X9 [2 [" Z3 _: I
Coral2.00 3.20 3.20, 6 L: H, Y" L& l) Z* c
PLAYIT2.10 3.35 3.25—2.00 3.35 3.50,
% x4 t! y3 w' j/ D' o0 y/ V) oNordicbet1.95 3.35 4.00, ' t& P9 V: h3 o% a8 S  p
Norway1.85 3.30 3.00 8 |9 o: n& z1 @( D+ N
平均1.99 3.31 3.49 5 Q+ y' W9 X6 D  k% n6 j. w
澳门初盘0.825平/半1.025,现已经升到半球高水,
9 m1 d  b0 p& [* k9 s( y5 Z立博0.76平/半1.08
/ D& q* j) U2 |% R莫尔德排名12,今年前6轮4负2胜,这2胜是近2轮的,上轮客3:2胜维京暴出大冷,走势为高,而阿勒桑今年是1胜1平4负,上轮竟然主场0:1负特罗姆瑟已经降之榜尾,历史对阵阿勒桑1:1平莫尔德,客场有3:2战胜莫尔德的战绩,竟然不落下风,这是基本面的东西。& d& }7 z+ X- x3 u1 p

9 ^  C1 o- G* c% f我们看到主胜的赔率从Norway的1.85到威廉的1.90和立博的1.91,Nordicbet的1.95到伟德的2.00,易胜博,Coral的2.00,到BET365的2.10,Unibet的2.15幽默的阶梯之状。% X* e9 a& k4 |. p) i
1 o, p5 ~4 q8 u! N
阿勒桑客胜倒是自3.00(易胜博变盘最低)---3.20—3.25—3.29—3.50直到立博的4.00(表达了不看好客胜的态度)不一而足。平局却异常集中在3.20---3.35这样一个狭小的区域,其中威廉平局最低为3.20。
, S$ p* M6 c. v$ l  A$ Z, V/ q  N7 @5 W' E% n/ b) \& [
我们发现主流威廉立博主胜为1.90是比较低的,而返还率差不多的Interwetten,Norway都是1.85,鉴于客队历史占优,多轮不胜,这样的赔率只能说是正常的,SSP为1.79外其它公司主胜均在主流威廉立博之上,难道小公司都是傻瓜,即使迷惑在上轮巨大的反差下,主胜也是阻不住的,并且它们还开出了客胜赔率低于平局赔率的奇异赔率,BET365和Unibet的仍然为2.10,并且BET365的客胜为3.29放在客胜心理 3.30界线上,Unibet客胜3.25也是如此,易胜博初盘3.10,变盘3.10降为3.00,主胜增加0.05,这样势必会造成客胜的幻想,在上轮巨大的反差下,我想阿勒桑即使历史占优,终不会是其客胜吧,但博彩公司为什么有如此举动呢?
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3 e) j2 z6 I, D* `再看SSP的1.79,看到上面的情况,玩串的看到本土的Norway为1.85,SSP的1.79会坚定一部分看好主胜者的信心,对其怀疑者感到主胜赔付低者看到Norway的平局3.30,客胜为3.00,高达3.57的平赔也会让人望而却步,而3.57的客胜比威廉的赔付相差无几,也不会有很大的心理压力,我想SSP是倾向于平局赛果的。
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我想提一点的是英国的彩民看到威廉的1.90 3.20 3.50,客胜仅比平局多3个百分点的确透露了客胜的担忧,那么立博平赔比威廉多0.1达到3.30跟本土Norway相同提高,表达了不看好平局的态度,看到Norway的3.00,立博的4.00也是有诱惑力的,我想立博一定是靠收主胜和负赔来平衡中间的3.30(并且一定是起了高阻的作用)。3 Z* Y+ p* O: h' q
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所以我倾向于SSP的态度,平局。
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2#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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3#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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4#
楼主心得分享了。。
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