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[lastpost] => 2758081 休眠比特币转移：3-5 年后转移了 31,968 个 BTC，价值 37 亿美元（转） 1755572003 小钱儿
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。- y8 F8 B# |. m g$ F" Z) R6 K
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值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。7 M5 S: ?) L/ ^4 C- k: h; V( |, u
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然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。
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7 F' ?# Y! w& W& H6 v$ j( H! m0 Z宏观信号依然支持" X+ j& j) n& Y% J+ G* b9 c3 C/ y$ c) F
美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。
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该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。0 s! _3 I. w, p, L( [0 N; F
5 g* V, _& \6 I( e, S( e从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。: ~0 K# y$ J7 k9 Z2 |0 D
; h1 H! G( g3 K% M' |市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.* e m3 r; O, p- c" A) E2 L
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这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。
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著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。( Q2 u" r9 B+ U
" T+ e, q, E4 C% ~! l! t他补充道，
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“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。” h6 Z, l+ x$ c! l$ b, t( f
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韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。
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. O+ n v6 T. @4 I( ^. r4 K! s/ i他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。0 F! K$ q2 ?- `: Z+ Z2 e
- ~: F( V8 j8 L5 K! c! S+ H亚洲比特币市场再度走强# `2 f# m3 ?( z( L- d: ?6 O' w& a
亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.
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此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。
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相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。
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! D3 E' A) o3 M' ?4 O9 t然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧% i0 C$ D: U# r% Y3 D' n
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