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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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) q1 ]+ b4 q; ]4 F+ J刚刚认真计算了一次;
$ G9 P3 W. P2 \- k' F% ?) v7 p, z$ j) I- n" r2 ~7 h3 }
假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
8 Z6 B+ p% Y( P2 e2 `. R* b
$ M8 @8 p- W# A. X开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
5 C+ N' T% S, |% W9 f0 ?8 x
/ K* T# X( D. \7 _/ E( r5 p) q开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72; o( ]" ?* l0 y5 j

) E+ E# k" a% e( G8 Q开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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$ f% L7 w8 u8 l收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5* R, Q, l3 W8 ]( V( Q+ ?2 C
8 \" O; l$ `  J# T% M

9 f* ^6 K3 ^, ?% Y. }所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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0 N9 {! M# }  h3 n  Q, Q加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;$ f0 \9 O6 H& h( r

, ]* o# P, h' B6 z5 @7 s以上,76gor; P1 z7 V8 `  i( _. }- `
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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# k9 S- J8 b( _0 K. R2 a, z& Z假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,% h3 b( |! R5 V$ x

' l, E8 V( J9 T一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
" \' ^& X- l! k! C' ^! w% n1 M每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152; F; E) X2 _( P+ @. S

; O- o  i6 h' c  Q0 N+ T3 O假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
+ s9 i2 x+ U( R: o" T
. T7 `$ K. H) e每天净收入为:¥652
$ V& W! C, ?  T8 [# Z
- ]5 r5 P) X8 s: E( u0 I年收入为:¥237,9804 E* x  L# n: m" ?4 S8 I& C) u

7 P9 ^5 B; `' |) m唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
; S3 m& r5 r6 U" @7 H* Q唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor   \' x3 O7 ~! s0 ]: _; w9 H

1 o! K/ d& _$ i4 w9 \" B! u, r' s$ ~, A  r" E  G
   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?
* X% L8 O' @7 h! J) G# aTerrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

/ u* L, C. h4 r; I( i9 x: ?( L) t5 M# Z3 n$ K+ ?( o

6 [3 M; x2 _  z5 R" h) M8 ?  V    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,- ~9 F5 s2 ^  B- d/ N: [% @
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;9 x2 P) [0 l; i& ^- l1 n

  S! _4 s! P2 U* `1 C) f' P假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:$ J" a: {9 x, X, ~: Z1 E

: E* |3 {* v( @' I8 d开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
4 {1 G8 T$ V- P4 n6 ^1 X7 a: ^76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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6 e! n1 i% Q$ O5 H/ L楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
7 v4 c3 ?& b4 A! Z0 c大概是1%多点
- o5 w; y  z6 K& R
$ `. C$ X* {9 }3 G; G至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏, \( J; N. [( K  q
大概是1%多点, F; W7 B/ v, P
1 ]" ^. s7 v. I' p
至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
$ ~( Q1 P3 _2 `0 B9 m5 N7 ctaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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. |) O3 E* f# w( F1 s
0 V, D6 @' [5 _8 P" M/ ~/ J. u    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?* l. Z4 Y" S1 V% w* B7 x. O/ V) H
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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/ ^' E: f0 S+ O% k4 }    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor 3 K7 y2 `/ E4 w+ E* s" j& ]
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor 7 o1 _# n' o4 `4 ^
; ^0 m5 [2 r- I7 E

9 \$ C6 m6 ], \$ S" p   有个风险就是豹子吧!
4 u% U0 S6 r. L! |4 \+ ?# n粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

* i. c( {7 Q" `& d, n+ h& l, [* d; n: ]* @) z

9 V: y. ]/ w$ t# d' Y. Q    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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