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2 M: h$ y5 z0 o5 {加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
! t3 z2 ?. L4 j/ fDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，: V0 k- |, U* [3 l! _) [9 Y
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
0 V5 p' @# g* ?+ u4 v& A3 d一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0/ d' i6 }, B0 V/ N( w7 f# T- j* p
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。( N( w6 f" w; E- _1 r* E
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：9 H t3 t# m8 | L
2024年4月第四次减半
! R6 Q+ m7 t# O0 v5 D9 \- m/ c机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
* ] N/ ~3 R. u& f, m2 x可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)2 ~% Q5 U; ]) f4 Y+ {0 ]: q8 y
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。 ~/ [0 h) ^7 Q& E" b ?& j( R
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
0 |( ?+ J9 \& ofriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。! d3 C. {" @" T" z3 R+ N5 {
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠6 A9 c: E. D6 ?* s9 n0 b
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。0 f# ]) }2 A: F1 |
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁7 p7 ^/ n' b0 f7 |* s) x$ r# {
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
9 J6 E t0 ^) F金融(TradFi)产品。
. }; g: P; ^1 T0 p) Z F6 I0 M如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨2 G5 ~% [: e! b! [7 D; C1 Z. z0 z
链桥」的项目。
1 K( w+ L x# m四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
& p ~' q- g" Z0 o2 `" {5 ]模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
! c1 {6 A, r* E! v等。! W' |. O9 J- t% Z2 G3 F
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
% q/ R+ B2 r/ B在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。1 @- B! p! |5 |( {: G, e# `; C
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
9 ]. r y; ]9 E& q) LPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位* u4 C: {% b' @6 i
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。( U1 ] s/ v+ B/ H8 w; |
Pantera点名了几个项目：
. p) F6 L7 L; ?Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图$ T' c5 w: _/ [
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台8 H8 z0 ^% v; g
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品% |9 f) T- L& @9 G, i9 F' K
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
* f% I; R" C7 Q* ^8 u4 E9 A" @Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
4 c; {) M, E! S4 M, {5 p- j六、小型公链需专注特定应用
9 f% S: e2 N8 t VPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚/ V1 a# Q& \: o1 [- @" u
至能直接与L2竞争。
/ r/ H1 Z5 q- Z; a1 H" }也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。 Y P1 {$ C( G
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地" S# Z" x) ^3 ^8 R+ G4 e7 h+ y+ B
成为「应用链」。
$ |3 N- X* z' N) k8 k/ j' m7 Y: j事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。/ W5 |: h" X+ j0 e! N
- U9 k j% P6 f% d& E7 G
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