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& q) _$ y* P- J3 f% z
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为8 s! ~! Q+ D- A, P6 k
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
$ O. V( B6 J( p衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。& D$ i0 q. l- g9 B% Z! s& }
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0! Z. B, d% j; e" v9 B, j
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。! C# D( c" h n6 E: b" \/ ]
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
( n+ f& X$ r7 y2 R" W, N2024年4月第四次减半
! A3 W9 d! Q8 A机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
$ V( i. W" {& Q4 R可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
! |4 E f' V' @) U% w3 C针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。 M+ b6 V9 p* L3 ^ a3 n, G
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务; ^) o7 A, @; m8 [, [
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。" y* N8 \3 V( {" a
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
* Y4 _! m) Y0 w3 e" Q( A& N诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
4 v, S7 M1 Y. I. D9 M* _三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁5 t# }) Y5 R' O. g' k0 r( C
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统. M! O4 z. b" I. U2 S+ K+ z
金融(TradFi)产品。* K/ u, k' f8 {: E, i' j P
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨9 [$ z! h$ w7 d% g1 k& O
链桥」的项目。
4 f( t7 r- y6 w& z. B" X' d4 o四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉7 Z9 w9 {# T' u5 F; r$ `
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
2 N$ B) e# j! b1 L$ R9 h* ?0 `等。# q7 R D3 ~( a# L$ [! r+ X4 A
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用4 P+ G3 f/ L1 {) a9 n/ v8 ? r; A
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
\ m7 M+ T3 H" X2 ?五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN. |1 z, I% _+ N' o2 C) T4 e" D
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
: j# E) o4 w" ?# x1 t9 ]9 q数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。" D) X {2 k5 O: S1 H- J4 I
Pantera点名了几个项目：/ d4 i+ ~# z8 z: j' F, v
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
. t8 V+ l* n2 s# w% [; gBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
. ], X' u `6 J A. jModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
$ ?- Q# X. y7 X1 X" J5 ^) X, @' zThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
: m& E. w/ |" l2 O, n7 ^. T$ y @Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游+ S. V% S: I/ Q
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
& ?1 D3 Y9 G! L' D( z [2 V% Y. \Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
& ]3 K( l) U6 x( b( D5 R" O! S5 r至能直接与L2竞争。9 D: V7 m. N: v. T7 V) ?
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
5 d4 {5 a6 N; q+ VPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地 @6 i5 b6 i. |. n _- k
成为「应用链」。9 S2 F$ S! r5 {1 z
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。6 h5 T# B- z7 |& @- p4 P
& u8 ]& b7 ^3 }5 w$ ]1 `& D7 T2 K
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