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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 7 b; k0 \: t d7 y* O1 L
余勋也不例外、 . L/ J1 @/ g/ U) U' u; U
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
# X9 l0 r* E x- N. g; }; d是保经济的重要决策！
$ I0 g! e# d+ J+ K" k/ h这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
; m# ^1 s3 |: z5 Z7 b低点26700-32400、
$ e) k% _. `# ]: O反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 9 z9 W; D# {, |7 A' b
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
" m" G* G+ g' q3 f% U4 Z- x大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
, t! f4 j+ q3 @; D1 Y6 H: ^$ M涨幅就已回撤过半！ : W+ r5 I, @# `0 x
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
& K- X' \6 E+ w }5 p# I不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 3 }/ `5 j+ N+ }
其次、 5 x- J' @/ L; ^4 f8 w8 s
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 % B6 `' O4 \& C% s+ p
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 * r+ G+ P* T6 p7 ~3 ?
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
) M% V, z9 q' y1 n美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
9 Z5 W3 [" f0 S7 O3 o' [但回到币圈、 % A2 O7 S" W( p# G7 M( g8 S4 \
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
4 E% [) a7 R6 ^在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
6 e: [0 c6 N) ?7 j而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 : J! P1 n* Q* K, B; X
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
- c0 k( M5 ~: o0 f7 M缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 / X" [' }5 B8 k
对当前的底部、影响有限。
. T# N) e+ V3 x$ z) v8 |: ?9 @4 t1 |' \最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 ; Q5 }7 F( b. u
所以27000、即是 ! W0 ? M/ T' J ] ]1 d7 ~6 b& `7 O
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
0 J) u& Y7 ^5 N" O! R6 D同时还是去年放水初期低点、
4 i+ a( {1 Q& n5 k! [也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
; {5 k$ x) N/ y由此得出的结论是、
" Y* ~8 z( M a1 |3 p! F加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
, X8 Q g3 t5 o6 l6 K6 V) l" F点位不会出现太大偏离。 ( C- ~9 v G" k
综合以上、
: j# d/ r P. L& X2 ?美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 5 }7 m8 h& v/ i8 y9 x+ Y7 b
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 2 C' y4 e3 A. l; \4 |% c5 _+ V8 _
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 , h0 o1 u" k7 y) f/ E: `* Q
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
$ \+ B$ s3 }* J) r那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 $ ^/ F. X, U1 [0 X
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
( }! }6 e8 A0 M( s( G& [美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 8 f& K( \5 d. d3 l6 a
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 - w: @( \/ f Y3 m. W3 F8 Y; v
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
* z0 g l9 T7 J9 N4 T9 l逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ) d& S/ f" K- P3 Y5 I d3 }# B
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
9 c1 d0 X5 `/ S. ?5 ]反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 ' C. l/ o$ G! V
得不偿失。 $ K2 \5 T, }" i0 m5 p! |. T
来源：金色财经 |
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