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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
& y, q: O- A% G8 v9 w余勋也不例外、
# |: Y9 y( c$ a b! {9 U6 x: M其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
, i: ^) w# [+ }, c7 w是保经济的重要决策！ X# W* S H% `# O3 E
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
; }/ m: h( t# }低点26700-32400、
0 J' D% h, C+ A0 z/ B; m6 k反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
. K% J9 T8 G0 V- H% l& N3 ]但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
, R- L$ {" t* o: W, J; Y) |0 I# D大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
/ S" G5 V2 U3 a- v: n" @涨幅就已回撤过半！ 9 I0 O! K' S0 V* `2 S
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
: S! C' A$ o- ?; L不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 # m2 b. c0 u) R6 K9 _0 j. a
其次、 - W2 x6 A0 C3 Z
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 * V+ F$ D" y4 r9 G9 c2 C
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
3 h( E5 J& u: E0 f$ p0 E等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 $ \" m3 C* k) L. g3 R3 p+ w5 | O: ?* ]
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 9 v5 U5 n6 Y; {/ F: M, o' [+ [; \
但回到币圈、
$ a# w& ~# E, m) n5 z+ ]& F去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
J) ^' a, F8 ~6 j( s在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
4 I% Z4 m2 A9 T0 \而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 ( U; G# w" y% ^- G, _
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 0 F3 |- F* y& w' B" g6 u
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
0 G2 y9 f# B$ N' ~对当前的底部、影响有限。 ! k. Z1 Z4 [8 ~" k( d
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
0 N! E+ A+ N- D& @. D所以27000、即是
+ j/ w0 B) p6 ?5 V去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
5 s; Y+ i+ R3 Z0 D0 M( K2 X同时还是去年放水初期低点、 8 p, r$ Z+ @( q% `! h$ b
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 4 c5 Y! k% i* l: W m
由此得出的结论是、 ) d% {$ n5 b" W, K7 C
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ) k$ T0 P- ?% E b% V# i
点位不会出现太大偏离。
! h; O# |$ ~0 E" u( j; L$ k6 \* y$ q* _综合以上、
* `4 C* |; }, f+ d ~6 m* Y美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
% U4 x3 U3 @2 o) c) g5 N0 B在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 6 D0 k/ R( C( E7 F9 l& N7 O* W! v
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 " w* c! q, L" a, U
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 9 n0 P" q* s) r+ [
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
/ R9 R7 C2 Y" T8 n; S即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
9 E9 N+ T4 b( t; |; P# V美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 % P2 `8 A) v* O
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 7 }7 ]& a2 T1 v7 C( \+ x5 U: M
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 # A" g" U7 c- i; ?1 @
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ' d& x. g. Z& B1 |" @9 K
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
- s, O c) o: i- J* O* e反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
' Q* g) g* v) L- |$ a! ~' x得不偿失。 ! ?$ s" E& o* f/ K6 w
来源：金色财经 |
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