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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
9 U! o& a' A6 r% F余勋也不例外、 ( Q$ A4 _; | a) k9 C+ e. J- O
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 6 }! G# Q4 g& E3 ^3 R! M+ [
是保经济的重要决策！
4 c+ j l' W2 Y( W这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 . s: p/ M: O9 W1 A5 u6 \
低点26700-32400、
0 H2 w8 e2 g! c. m反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
, W/ C0 M3 l- [) c但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 % P! r. l5 Z' j
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
* {1 G, z: K( r: v# t6 S涨幅就已回撤过半！
7 Y) Y* Y; E0 ^: a1 p* b" h所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 + d* y2 g3 t! u4 X8 z6 s# _% c$ B
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
- P/ u4 u" H: k! y* e其次、
7 [4 ^- A0 ?# D% o缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 ! W6 k$ U" q" Q; G1 l
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 5 M @- W. I0 o" \
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
1 V% P! G" Z1 [% B. U5 Q& o美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 ! h3 `. T8 C1 M# H1 @! R
但回到币圈、
( d$ v; o) w' G; p0 p; s去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 - T Q# f$ r4 W! y x% o! q
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 + Q/ N# c* E( t! r6 M" k
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
% e! K$ e0 w1 j/ i6 [' H" ]个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 0 O2 S$ ^. N3 h& \
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
+ z$ L% C: Q2 {* u1 }' q! \" m! @5 v( l对当前的底部、影响有限。
% d* R, h4 H; z' q- @' W, j最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 ' _3 ~' ]( B. @( d i8 }
所以27000、即是
/ P$ y& T2 _0 N0 {6 V4 y去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 8 j/ [% H! H' G
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
6 W1 y! @' F1 c% z也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 # h- O7 q- s4 ?
由此得出的结论是、
) Z, y- U6 Y7 g! N加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 1 i& A, }% x- l2 @6 }* p, S7 X% G
点位不会出现太大偏离。 4 [2 D) X: V3 p" p' B, ^5 K& s
综合以上、
8 ^6 `0 r' _( ~美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
6 U' f2 U! [; q' Q2 M在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
8 T4 E5 J0 J! C3 E那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
( p! [: ?% P \0 I# p5 A抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
5 h0 A: ^' i0 ]& p9 K那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
7 G# h. K. p% V% e1 A即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
2 A- M1 C9 W+ j2 d- c" {美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 + b' a( Q$ M7 c% z! R$ m" G
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
, z8 l1 H* R. Y* ?) A; _+ P大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
. L. O* V6 S3 {+ ?5 ?逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 6 l" h7 M" |9 t% r9 p. {
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 A9 ^; d' W5 j5 t/ X( a: m6 A
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 & s9 X( p3 W$ O+ B, Z1 F& `) `4 P8 V
得不偿失。
1 K2 ^& d8 i+ E; q6 h W5 ]来源：金色财经 |
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