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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。* f. X! D6 O) k1 ]/ c+ ?
% z+ a' K; G; p; e+ y5 c3 |4 {; A7 j% o* n
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率/ z5 J9 A1 k) Y" F5 M
Z/ S+ k' W7 X4 H8 e4 \
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:2 p0 ?* M5 ]! r5 O* L7 V
& u, r/ S; I: Y' Y3 G
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ! ~. d O/ P. {% B
9 b. [' B* e" }' k# J9 k! @/ W很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
+ Q0 F0 H( s" ?4 N2 b; F
+ s7 E. F# G' d' ]# h答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)! _) c4 N# K4 F' L
' W; C, y& X, O
; y& j0 V5 V# F
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
, K/ M f+ P0 o9 N# z5 w6 l( q7 E3 {! p
0 T2 U& u, A1 i' z. q# ?! C+ V& T s
盈利可能性% P- m. V# p5 }( c6 Q
: V f$ [2 B9 r3 S# W/ @, G$ A
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。* v/ B) K& Y4 x! D
. f% b+ }& r3 m0 ^+ |0 p9 ^% I
增值1 y1 ]6 i) E# o0 _# R. @3 ~- b+ S, T
, T B% o7 x, Y: c6 @4 n$ q. `" ^: p许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
' M* ~4 l- X t& }1 T P. h4 M, ?4 b
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
: Q) s! l2 i& r' {1 ], i
7 C5 k$ Y8 e G$ N1 Ta) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ( t2 r; l0 Y$ `, }. ]: X" ~. Q
) X( y7 {# y- N& E
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
% m: ?& F4 i; ~0 h( Q1 }6 N) B
, Q" K1 p7 H; ]3 Y( q: V40%的机会你会收到150元的利润& {4 o( R8 i8 p. u$ c
60%的机会你会一无所有
3 H1 S1 S) K0 d( H. e& r预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 : s% I$ }' X& i- ~: J
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
9 J: o. B* Y/ C
: r5 k( y& P3 Y0 r4 g5 ^) _4 m增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
% r# d3 D+ W9 S6 B$ P
# F7 u( @, @/ C基于增值的投注) q; m( s n9 C i& L- n: @
( N3 |" M5 |) Z2 _4 ~/ k: U
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。' w, z2 |5 l2 z; Z
6 Q8 z3 Q2 O0 s4 L% n公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
0 x; o2 {: O" e% ~9 {
% x! C8 P# K# k# N1 lA=博彩资金
4 L7 M3 {: ^; rP=获胜机会
: w% n! ^4 z4 @! d3 YO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
' G3 _4 n$ S3 S6 n1 l+ s% r2 z+ k2 z3 T. t
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。9 S. U9 k. H8 y' G! v! {
" V7 I& {9 U7 n* C7 y6 z好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。 C' e8 [7 L7 c8 p+ E l/ y
) u$ C3 @9 I q) e% W1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5), v6 K3 K+ I" }$ I' J6 `2 R8 U
! e I& `% S% E& VA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
" M, s7 Z8 P. L; C6 ] h, M: K3 E9 |6 f ]
A=0- f: b. T. p5 f6 i n
% h$ B0 l( l7 G9 ], L
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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* e7 _: G9 N, m7 F7 i2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
7 B& P/ {7 c! t* A& S$ K a9 Y8 s- c/ {5 m% a6 f; t/ V
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
. T$ o( N8 R- x6 g/ h Q/ `
1 M8 \4 }, ?9 b/ fA=0.1+ Y$ t2 H; u- I) [
" `- b2 D; ^" T结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
; u2 ~ t: `' `' b# H( M6 _0 n3 {
\1 B$ d) a3 H1 `/ U: \3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)" I$ Q- ]+ V% N4 w, D5 e' d; Y
) [" ]3 v- c! v4 h8 C$ \" g# b1 W9 HA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
- t5 Z8 _6 R7 c4 [6 { t0 v/ R t2 ~6 ^) {7 z: v
A= -0.2 1 x3 e6 I' S" {0 e! `
. j8 D2 o' S7 @
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好8 o$ ?4 o* C0 k) ]; }
' h( t% s9 ]% {; P# e/ P第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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