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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。) d& U0 G, I! C# s& t/ M! f
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# u/ O1 A4 |7 y/ ]' B西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:, k+ y/ I6 R8 D7 D! K" |4 v
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?$ f3 p! E) |. u( j' Z' m0 i
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?/ G2 X! N8 g) Y  d. b( \/ g, W

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盈利可能性0 @+ |% _5 L" Q) l3 D, `

& p( x  Q$ B0 _" w# n4 b! d$ a# i对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。! ~0 X( j( n& R* g/ M

* k$ T5 R) z5 K$ k增值4 H; ~! I6 D/ a* d, V

/ N+ ]8 t8 W7 F2 C许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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, h* S2 q) `7 `. J1 Q" a你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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. }+ T2 g, k) x# A6 ^9 X0 b40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
1 n4 H( W9 X5 @- z! m9 D; p60%的机会你会一无所有5 Z2 D+ F* g* z! a7 ^
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 # e6 K5 ~" d6 X+ _( p  e: o
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。) D5 ?2 y: W' O, F4 q

9 ]8 R+ h7 \2 w& a) l& t公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金, l- o. Z% b3 J3 C3 n6 Z, z/ c
P=获胜机会2 t0 ]: z- D% C
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)- L9 Y3 b1 x* L' o' t8 f

5 C9 `/ h4 B( t: l* c! O% y6 y首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。+ n" T7 _- q; H1 E1 w3 t# k

! a) P  o) Y, ?8 M) R好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。" ?& b# e5 g( o6 [% [, X/ J2 f, u
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)( a9 g' [" |- L4 n7 A! b3 E& h

$ S0 b/ e  q  ~A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=07 q. b( S: e8 W! K4 t9 a. P5 V

) V4 N/ A) A" e3 f7 e. T结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢7 S8 j9 Y4 ~& F9 q# o
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2). l" k* W9 M0 \0 ]7 t

) `2 x6 A9 r* @1 X: g8 J8 Q' sA=0.1
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# [9 J1 }0 F5 C0 A结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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( ?9 d/ H! A0 {8 b% _3 U0 O. \' M3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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1 c3 ~% G# I1 X3 M' I: X' g6 RA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)) x2 i% @) L" J/ b) ?( c# u

) l; l9 t' Z. PA= -0.2
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8 `) Q8 x5 r3 M- C7 o结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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: r9 G9 ~/ L, T5 v9 t% Y( f第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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