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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
( Y3 @) j1 V3 _% t/ {% g2 ^2 ~; U4 k- `余勋也不例外、 1 Z( u8 z% J2 u8 N9 t/ I
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
6 S9 m/ V2 W3 L8 K& U6 W是保经济的重要决策！ + K. s+ x( M4 Z
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 " V- d8 \; L$ f* W
低点26700-32400、 " O1 I) `- @! {3 x8 H9 s' x
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 . Z# D2 o2 C; |4 V
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 7 _' x2 i9 k2 H+ ]$ h: s) g/ q8 U
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
% B8 I# ^& t: a K7 m8 G2 k R3 [涨幅就已回撤过半！
/ m3 o$ x) t- A& `& j所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
* z$ o# W) H0 v6 b+ R3 j不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
: ^6 N0 S9 E0 K/ j' V; M其次、 ]( c6 o5 B& a, Q# x1 U" Q
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
" G, g) t% o; f; \5 c" I每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 $ A) ]! F' Y1 i( o7 g7 q( v9 N. b
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
/ ^) f7 o. ]$ j0 h& i) q! _美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
# ^3 e2 U" A; m7 m/ R; m2 `$ q$ \5 a但回到币圈、 % Z* {6 f. B" g
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
; j8 `, @& U7 b/ M在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
" V! b- ^. \4 ^( j5 {2 y而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
U2 h4 C% C2 w* O" G* ^个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
5 S5 o3 S# k. @9 i9 y缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
6 J3 ?% r3 B3 \/ O( `2 D' L4 e& V对当前的底部、影响有限。
" c+ c2 V, c4 h S2 e4 K最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 5 E; | {$ p4 G: l O, d
所以27000、即是
: j: d& A3 v/ G7 V& _去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） Z$ u9 u7 @* ]& U% h; f
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 . Z* t' {3 |2 M: d. G
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
3 K4 k% T9 V0 K% }2 d! s% x由此得出的结论是、 " ~6 q6 R' X1 J$ i/ |0 i
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ( n6 O, C% ~% W- }' _! R! t
点位不会出现太大偏离。 $ h" }6 M# A( f8 s" _
综合以上、
) ?- ]- S. O r美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ; g$ X% G: T' _/ Q
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 * t+ Z& [* T& Q/ H Z
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 & x6 e2 D' J( I2 `# j- U1 ~
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
- G9 b# [, K, X( H那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 - _# o8 N% n3 r- z+ r/ G5 K$ P" Y
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 , x9 s9 D. O, l7 D8 j
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 , c. Z5 L. l# L" b# F
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
2 [: k. ]: H) W; T/ }! s; c大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
' ~3 ?' S0 g+ K" ?5 l* E逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
) `: {' ]0 E, n高空需至31700-32000间布局、
+ ~3 H$ x- b+ r" p7 w反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
0 l. D! c9 h$ A2 ?得不偿失。 . Q1 h8 _5 I, W$ D3 B$ p+ m
来源：金色财经 |
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