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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。4 f* g7 Y0 a; p' z, t8 B
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。
T5 a' l7 S! N2 z* W3 b t9 g$ |) l
( [2 q6 h4 ?) S% R5 s 与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而 |3 a# {4 F# q/ [# n) C6 F
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“短期看空”比特币。
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“在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已' `4 d- x. N" N; z
9 B( G$ w! _" q实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”& Q: R7 G6 o9 d) q% B; p0 w5 u
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报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。
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根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，' |; M: R4 F+ J; \& p& |4 I! p. z% a
6 ~' m e) e% [1 v而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。8 ~3 s& M/ F l3 a/ r3 W& B4 E
! F4 Q+ |7 M& D) f* p BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的8 K6 _/ D7 N2 D, m9 f
5 Z5 W# ]% X* J' i S G- @利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”5 M3 C# I) M" T" K+ E
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“尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，; {- u& Q5 {4 e7 C0 k6 \ {
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将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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