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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。" ]& ?% C, X# @$ f6 b1 q
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率1 A% ?# A: U8 B1 n( ]# C( m
% o X [0 n# ?) T
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ! C0 s* P% A0 t2 K/ G5 z# P8 z: [
% l: Y' R2 ~) |& M" ?; _很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?, Z8 C* D. T5 G4 J V! {- }
8 M1 @* q3 o' e0 k答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)* B1 S( R" U: ]- s1 s
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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. E/ e3 q/ n6 W v a) {- D6 m y对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。( @) `" _/ c+ B/ m/ o6 c6 ~) j) N
S% Q( N$ Q- m! M2 E* m3 y4 V你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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% i+ B! J T- E: Y* x/ Q# g$ _' `1 X+ T1 Oa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么. Q% e# O4 I8 h; E8 S
4 x, @* @1 }6 @ c% [. \( K: |40%的机会你会收到150元的利润; \/ B* M/ S) Q6 E
60%的机会你会一无所有
7 b: V- ^, ^, b预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 6 y4 L, V* B- I
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。- Y* Y p+ m( Y0 b8 f) w
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。5 |8 M( B" K1 v" [: X
' F5 c: J' E9 a0 N基于增值的投注
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+ [9 D' v' x6 P/ L! `" g2 @4 \; D凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金9 M3 F* I: l5 R
P=获胜机会
+ a# b# Y* I3 \% n* ~4 iO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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" T1 C/ b Q8 G5 `7 K, v首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。0 J; M' w: D" B7 Q' o; x( U, _9 Y, E
( W: R% }! c2 J好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)7 h7 I5 v: s7 Z
# Q; M8 u1 w" h1 Q: m1 B( QA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=09 K- p# F+ y, @& n& m
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 B" x: m E. I, a. A2 Q2 W& s2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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- e# D. Q. X7 z/ ^+ HA=0.1& |+ Y/ j& d6 x! `1 H0 a
" {2 @% i B) _结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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* a7 E/ T+ z; G# m* Y3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)! X- a& ^) R0 {/ m3 m5 S
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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3 `1 @5 u3 b, { ^# n! y第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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