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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
2 @" K( l4 t# ^0 Q7 G ! t# Q0 w" v* K! Z1 U
平手中水,主队有利
) l+ V6 m7 f& V8 X; H0 o! f 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。: o; g% k3 U r7 }0 H! f
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
/ I, N9 L6 a! j2 H 英超主队
' n' J5 [" B" F' g$ x, E 胜:13场 48%
8 U0 d) U' J% }( [: z# v' y 平:5场 17%+ Q5 A9 {& }, C
负:9场 35%
# k6 c- c+ W2 S' `2 h 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
( }' \- i4 d6 ? @+ ?( z/ c( v! Y ' c% t/ w& \" `. ?8 u1 ]9 S4 t3 a
一、初盘阶段
2 d' n. U7 n B: t i6 i A, U% M 具体到水位如下:
: |! r. h. e$ U* L+ L) c' K& @ 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负. h" `# v# `/ N& Z
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负$ ~$ Z" V' e* }7 w
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负1 A7 m% y8 H: @: S) c3 }) G- v
7 z9 s9 J2 |8 z X7 j
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
/ o' C) l0 ?- e% K' Y 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
" r4 r/ E+ V% K$ G2 @ 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。" L @ C5 n+ L% v
' d8 a* l. L e 二、临场阶段
& Q$ ?6 H4 [2 [7 Z6 H8 R5 {
) Q h) i4 [( I5 e 具体到变盘和水位如下:
/ Q/ F; n$ a- }$ v7 o- u. ` 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
: ^- Y% u/ w1 e6 [7 {6 R 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负) L7 ~5 g$ u! I. G+ x5 s' P
' n4 \, _& C; x0 M7 x3 y
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。$ V6 v8 c4 ~1 y' C+ m4 E
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
4 j4 y$ U* t7 t5 M" n+ Q' h' _ $ h7 b; ?0 _- Y2 T _* g
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿) E' e9 |7 u* N1 N& D
初盘:0.82平手1.044 }+ l& D6 I* y% W
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
* H% }$ H+ ^8 W5 p( c5 q! U
7 \7 d& A$ U, l& G( h9 ] 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
. q0 G& P/ `$ I6 q; s 初盘:0.76平手1.10
& [0 g* p, B0 y: d 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
" p2 Y9 W `5 [5 x ( ?" V4 M+ g9 t6 O3 o" o6 @
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技5 v6 f7 p( G8 m0 H
初盘:0.82平手1.045 f. V1 e4 c" W- o' m; d7 @
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98) [4 ~7 a. M, a* O# z% W* Q3 a
. W n2 `) [7 o C0 F 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
" G) W6 J N; I' n4 U 初盘:0.88平手0.980 N3 k7 f* B9 k* r
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
; J7 v$ a% E" W1 M7 ^* P% y1 h& J2 J 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。* T _. M* F1 g# Z t# K2 E) M
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。7 @ Q6 i9 d" V# Z6 s" c4 Z
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
% X, D3 S7 o0 |2 S" N" F2 y
+ n/ ?* A2 J& U$ |0 o5 x2 {* \ 三、球队表现
. d4 d& j3 G% D ( `2 _& y! L& V( j- R# p% D
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
Y) x8 O. b) n) h - m. a: y- Q* @
四、投注要点
$ \ e. L$ B1 X. l' B' D 要点1:平手中水、主多不败) {/ I, u9 S1 L! d
要点2:平手降盘、走两头: V' _& t* @, r R$ E
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
0 S) Y" n- a u% t- r- ^ 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大' g0 ^) _; o# m/ r
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任: w f8 Y; D1 R/ \! S
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大. X/ G3 ^# s1 r- R2 Z' @
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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