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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘7 S/ v! ^. `/ \
     
% x- Z  c; T" I$ z     平手中水,主队有利
" ?6 y9 D# x2 n' c     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
, D5 \% d3 v* }9 C3 i1 w     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
$ t! A5 t5 k5 U     英超主队% `0 I7 @- P* Q3 a
     胜:13场 48%; G% q0 S8 r  F5 |! R
     平:5场 17%+ ~. ~' D- |' z$ m4 ?  ]
     负:9场 35%
0 _0 `- y" ~, s1 C4 t0 b1 R, ~8 d" {; t     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。- o$ o$ x8 [: k% \- c% H  D9 m! _
     6 x6 ]1 A* g4 M( h! }. l- Y
     一、初盘阶段
" U, U3 M; L3 n5 z" C# Q2 _     具体到水位如下:
# G' N, z. z/ c  s$ r     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
- W& U" p* ^. c$ ~) q- @6 I" R% G     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
8 o' K3 E7 {$ Y% u! f+ D, `( E( E6 m. f     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负; k' q$ j4 a  w+ Z( a% G* `
     
# c# w( j# M3 ]/ ?     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
5 B, X0 H! R- p% P0 J2 k1 c6 V5 Z     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。# f2 A* f1 a( W' N; _
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
1 t% T3 B0 E+ V( Q! o( s% j7 h     
3 s# {" c$ [. r) v2 x     二、临场阶段
5 E4 @  T& m7 l     6 b$ B- L% c7 e; y
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
- u5 h8 L$ v9 A1 q+ B8 [0 P     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负! F6 w7 n+ u7 ~; k) M
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负9 ?5 Y% v1 t3 _' m& W* Y! W
     & r" V/ @# l. a
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
) s0 c. w- x  _6 M     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
! J$ S( p/ f4 {! f* w4 y     0 i: K* P0 |1 Q3 L' _7 L7 Q
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
! O, E0 v2 y0 e6 H5 }     初盘:0.82平手1.042 o. l; j/ N& M
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85: V& D% }! k  }# q
     
! b1 t# U; H2 `, a     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆6 N8 B1 ~3 Y9 U. J, r- X0 s# g$ Z, D
     初盘:0.76平手1.103 _+ O3 i8 e) K. E$ x
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.912 U8 O+ m8 K+ T& D7 ?
       c8 f, \; R1 {# k6 r% o
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
7 }. B+ L4 _( Q- d, b     初盘:0.82平手1.04
2 P) ?, L" P' D4 K$ ^: s8 \     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98- I5 p) b* S- |% U
     
) A! F$ v6 t% I6 v1 e4 w     伯恩利2-1西汉姆  M0 c0 T' t  ?+ O5 v4 k1 p6 }
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
2 X: [  H9 F( @! g3 H     终盘:1.12平/半0.747 r+ Q0 H. b  a. `
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。' b6 U+ `4 F3 _& n5 t
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。* e5 ~3 E; Q7 B
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。, o/ ]0 e2 ~4 N" p6 D1 P
     
+ H, s* k1 r( U, N$ _     三、球队表现8 L! n9 R5 L, W! c* _/ w& c$ q
     - L3 l! k7 p9 F" A3 ]9 s' {# X( b
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
# i0 `# F; z" m0 W7 I     
& U6 e  w2 _' u' o  a     四、投注要点
% R. e  |( @" t& j0 X& T( j# |     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
1 h& r" f$ z, V2 ^     要点2:平手降盘、走两头; s6 O* }( f( v2 e* r7 V
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败* E/ x  F- x' D  p
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大% J$ s- [6 ~  [" z
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
* _5 R/ z' D' z0 T- D9 k: t* `     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
) I# e1 k' c9 M, f- T& l1 U     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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