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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
: L; {6 U) ^3 G2 x0 i" g$ |
. H! j& {1 N) A 平手中水,主队有利
& Q. c+ O% B/ P: r6 M 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。. |; U4 E. r6 n" G' g5 V' {: ?
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
- Y/ A6 t, C. Z# P) W" ? 英超主队/ b7 P+ B2 x% j5 ^
胜:13场 48%' U! T9 Q8 y* k! }# z+ U3 @
平:5场 17%
2 I. E$ P ]! f+ d- n! m% l 负:9场 35%3 i p9 x/ @8 H" o8 e6 e
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
8 o. t# ]1 }) x, o9 v
$ t3 ?, j, k- g- x 一、初盘阶段
0 W! Y3 v5 _! f. s, v" F( ? 具体到水位如下:1 z7 e& p% r! o. E& I2 p/ n
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
5 h! ~7 `: \# |0 n 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负( E6 a+ H' W4 A5 a' H- z
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
7 R( D+ R, I) {2 ?3 ]: ` J- p( G/ ^
3 m. d# L3 e/ n& [0 g9 s) v 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。! k: n7 T k- Q0 V
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。5 d* I$ d3 I/ U9 e* z% _. R
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。/ u# H7 D+ g1 q$ Z4 i& _
" o! W& L) q' n( ~# o$ ~. f, p 二、临场阶段; n1 D8 Z. y e, E8 p0 v9 j% g
1 v9 E+ q# n7 w; ~ 具体到变盘和水位如下:+ m" o8 P0 x( X4 M& e- Y
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负' v2 C. n8 {( b1 M6 A
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负6 C5 }8 R; a: P' w) @* i
- x8 k$ z4 d2 F3 T- T' Z8 s
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。1 z' i& i6 M7 Z: Q) D5 v
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:/ F/ b; L& q4 U& i6 V3 F. d3 M
4 X- P; z: h* ^1 ~3 T. g( O- U7 n 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
: s" P( {$ i. a. K* q 初盘:0.82平手1.04+ w+ t8 i W6 k8 A/ I- J0 \
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
8 j6 \: I `+ t+ U2 P
* }$ l; r1 ]8 j; E& E9 a 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆) q( W7 ?) J1 F3 O
初盘:0.76平手1.104 [) F+ C% d$ h1 U( K* s7 [
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
. w: P# j) V: H" w( ]) W5 z* V
* S9 M$ ?8 C& H" X 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
1 W0 w0 Y9 s9 X 初盘:0.82平手1.04
2 r$ ]. H4 C5 g% b- {5 _9 Y$ l$ A 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98" x) m3 `% U. ]/ u' F0 d2 b, x
8 [" T0 b# ^: w Q& d2 b 伯恩利2-1西汉姆' {) B9 i% N7 v- j! J
初盘:0.88平手0.98* l# a7 u: F8 u/ r7 n7 z) k, }( }
终盘:1.12平/半0.740 `6 I& F I* O+ I' N
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
2 c. c c; F2 Y 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。+ M4 `6 S& D+ P7 D; r- H: [8 I: o, n
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
. c9 z, s6 W: b, e! v
1 b) X$ G4 _; y+ B4 A, M 三、球队表现
0 ~+ c* V5 { T+ M$ [, ?* n1 X# ^* |6 T
( C# P! I1 b. I, Q" Y 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。+ g+ `/ U. @4 ~. x5 v% b, u
$ e1 C, _6 z! S s6 }6 {5 w& ~/ ~ 四、投注要点
1 I8 d" f5 {( ?" b" l+ q: L7 X 要点1:平手中水、主多不败$ T3 _; y) D& ~9 R
要点2:平手降盘、走两头9 R. i& S9 B6 f0 ?- j% X+ Z# N
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
* F* \! Q, C$ H1 W2 {; Q- Q1 b( W 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大% W& l3 F& R* Q8 Z
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
) R) Z3 z6 r. F3 F# u9 y: ~6 b7 B 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大6 I6 B& ^; t( B' u5 ~( _
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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