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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
; R6 }+ h, I4 L: ^$ g* |. M/ Y5 h# @/ u
" f/ i8 Z s: Q西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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, ?6 s! _7 _( ?3 R( Q以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
& ~; d) h- k; z5 `! f) ~" h V5 C3 N2 ]+ r W
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
+ [1 N5 e- L5 i+ e0 v, q3 ~ l4 U* B M6 H0 L
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?4 e5 [; O( X- r8 |) p; E- u
2 B" Z# c/ p4 M7 m+ D. L答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)) F6 [- @+ C4 q& i/ P
6 P, m& i: r4 j: j' _( Y
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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" e8 j( C5 ?: Y( U" e; y0 B5 J, y7 Z- X6 l. g: g9 [
盈利可能性$ x) d- m/ a$ b' @: o7 i2 ]
) B6 P& N/ ~8 O8 d对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
$ s6 g7 I% L0 |7 g4 L, v1 B6 i G6 o$ @8 x+ @
增值+ y# q4 d- T8 F! ~6 @$ h& [5 z$ B# F
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。7 I: t5 \1 i) ^" z: V" `
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ' S4 r& b: W* y
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么8 k w, I; V v5 R
* Y8 |! i3 w- F! _
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
/ D* g+ A& B% H9 h7 N60%的机会你会一无所有9 j: r2 Q& B+ [& D- f
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
* O; c1 ~( U* g ^/ o5 t- t由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。$ V) o0 c1 S% J
7 s$ ]; j2 ]; ]) p: P" e% ~增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。7 {3 X9 I _" f9 P7 c
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基于增值的投注9 W: ]! i6 X8 O- c: y( s9 f6 v
7 b! e4 l% R) J) H. I' p! C
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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* U3 b! ]+ F% X8 q8 D! q: _公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金* @/ w* S7 U. Y6 p9 v" F8 {
P=获胜机会- r0 i/ ?, `8 j& K- v
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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4 a# C4 g- X2 d8 z# z) G0 U6 ?A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)( T5 z1 x6 j! F& l7 T2 [( N8 x
6 \9 e0 w" _. p( M8 f7 oA=0- N B) o# { _2 {' y% [& [
+ h2 m/ v+ i7 K! f结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)# q- ^) Y, v3 L4 n0 |
- Y0 {+ {# L( ^1 F& }5 gA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
7 \0 T D9 y- n
# ]" l7 y- |! s5 f# E2 u3 QA=0.1
l* W5 v. i4 h# v1 J) M5 A4 c0 G) j3 g. R" R7 Z3 g2 y8 o$ ]
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去; k" Q( D. H/ r
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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, _) z4 D3 A. Q% i, _+ `A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)! O$ n% X& o' n
R( e6 S7 S t8 {( M; v- nA= -0.2 1 `3 N$ E/ S. ~
$ e: [0 F0 L; W
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好* P# W/ H1 I- f" r
1 Z/ |) I. [1 q第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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