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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
; y4 ^: P$ w$ i! A9 [. G& w* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
4 H& w& V H f3 j) v1 h0 M: h凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k B$ `/ |5 [+ ^2 [4 `! m" M
* m! p- W% ]! E3 e/ `2 e# aG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)8 {' {# X/ H6 P! k; O
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [: r1 R/ N$ Z* E. d( F9 z! I
: @ x& k; q9 ]+ L
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
, s. \- k/ N& Q- Z0 p; }既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
3 P0 y; @7 T7 o! |7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s4 e! w% n% g9 T/ ?
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
0 P" a c7 ?# i4 H' R {; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
8 @% w0 G( T# ^- k3 [9 y9 E(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
0 U' i" @$ h6 Y+ j
% q: `. x1 X. C8 y6 R; d+ p/ i(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 4 n+ a; ]9 V" p: u0 O4 e
4 p0 `+ w7 j' R! N(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t( G3 G9 }. V* D9 N) m+ j6 U
v% z/ n# x! {9 `' `
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 5 ^' e3 j- I2 u
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
/ M; o1 ^* D# G& ]* R0 A我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 % C& }, S7 b6 C# u8 v
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c; u) b: m5 z' y
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 * O4 P% P; |% W, R, x* l! }/ u
* G D% X9 y# _: t8 `
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 ; B, l% s, o4 t7 C
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
2 i9 P1 ^2 T2 p2 ^6 _) ^2 k! Y# `$ {S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
' K" C6 d3 E R9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
3 G/ U" p( P a2 I) v* w. rS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \0 e8 m1 ?" o$ @) p
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
0 u. y1 ]) m( w' ]. ]& b1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 ) V' Q6 r5 M" Z# I8 a6 B, j
4 S( d P S }' C1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
& E6 j! o& k/ X1 S- a) B, \6 q! P8 R! N7 m* q# l
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
0 B9 O3 U! u3 u- ~& \
, X! C7 D! ^" A$ f0 y% {$ d/ x: B; j1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 5 p/ Z1 `% L: m+ v6 n. b
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r3 T! O E% _ V2 X! d
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T# y" O+ \1 n5 r r5 `, v
9 j3 P! R0 Y5 H5 o* v
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j J# ~' R8 Y2 y' Q7 U5 O* l
5 P `. C8 ]- F: y
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 0 m+ b% [8 y- i% b
% }" S( F( R+ ^7 E* bS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s! p; m* g/ N5 Q, M# n0 h8 v/ f' s
; m' V% T, u, P% O
% W: k$ w9 K& L% Z: H. vS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ; p0 K: {( m+ E
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a8 P7 H2 O- @# K- v( R5 J* b: C# n
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
: O* j% e% J" v# r9 m x' @: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
7 u4 E0 h7 |9 A2 A! n& I(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
& M2 O6 l% N4 C' m: F* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \% N# h1 q; n( E2 }' f5 D3 B
好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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9 w( {2 Z% U4 _B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ; e( ]6 B( ^5 y3 o
) F( u6 G' ~/ t; ^) ?! YF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
1 ]4 q" q) t7 W* t5 g; D, J. T& S3 w4 R
于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?& l) x/ ?' g' \ b$ t1 L* Q
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
) U* }$ N( O0 t5 X, z0 a" e. DG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M" D! _- h7 r, H! K7 {" o2 c6 w
+ D$ n) P# X# M
) V; ^6 Q& y3 k+ e8 e* T9 ?G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 3 h/ O: R) ^6 [8 ?5 ~: c
! A) ~) `' `6 _. E
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
; H2 F( e+ \' h5 F& \0 C3 q0 S4 p' W1 Y8 W; |
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
2 f- r, L2 c9 Y1 e# v6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i5 f- J4 E1 |7 f) ~1 P" g
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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